Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting Economic Cycles: BRICS Lessons

Ch. 29. P. 499–513.

Smirnov Sergey, Ozyildirim A., Kershoff G.

The current best practices in measuring, monitoring, and forecasting economic cycles are drawn from the experience of mature economies such as the USA, Japan, and several Western European countries. Meanwhile, there are a lot of peculiarities in emerging economies that should be kept in mind when developing a system for tracking and forecasting their short-run dynamics. In the literature, there have been numerous attempts to apply the international best practices to emerging economies, but these attempts have usually been sporadic. The experience of the BRICS economies accumulated in this book allows for a fresh look on the problem of the development and use of cyclical indicators and is potentially useful for other emerging countries.

Keywords: composite indicators, cyclical indicators, business tendencies surveys, BRICS

Publication based on the results of: Mid-term prospects of the Russian economy development and structural reform outcomes under strong budget restrictions (2018)

In book

Business Cycles in BRICS

Springer, 2019.