Влияние промышленной политики и энергетического перехода на демографию угледобывающих предприятий

Экономическая политика. 2026. Т. 21. № 5. С. 32–59.

Gorodnyi N., Fedyunina A., Никитенко С. М., Гоосен Е. В., Саблин К. С.

This study compares the impact of industrial policy and the energy transition on the life cycles of coal-mining enterprises in 31 countries over 2017–2022, accounting for differences in national coal industry development strategies. Using panel data on enterprise entry and exit, climate policy, energy mix and government support. Econometric techniques such as fixed- and random-effects models, we identify nonlinear relationships between policy measures and coal enterprise dynamics. The findings show that these dynamics are shaped by three opposing forces: the global climate agenda, national energy-security strategies, and institutional inertia. Three key paradoxes are identified: the expansion of nuclear power is associated with lower coal-mine closure rates; the Climate Change Performance Index is significant only in countries where coal is not a strategic resource; and green subsidies do not prevent the entry of new coal enterprises. Four country groups are identified: major exporters, major importers, domestically oriented coal producers, and green transition economies. Environmental-goods exports accelerate mine closures, whereas coal rents and the share of coal in the energy mix slow this process. For Russia, we propose a differentiated climate policy, cooperation with countries facing similar enterprise-dynamics patterns, and investment in clean coal technologies to integrate climate objectives into industrial policy without compromising energy security or export competitiveness.

Keywords: панельные данные, эконометрический анализ, coal industry, econometric analysis, Демография предприятий, panel data, угольная отрасль, firm life cycle