Прогностическое значение полигенного профиля риска при дилатационной кардиомиопатии: анализ краткосрочной выживаемости

Российский кардиологический журнал. 2026. Т. 31. № 8S.

Кубкин Я. В.

Goal. To assess the contribution of polygenic risk scores to the short‑term mortality prediction model in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).

Materials and methods. The study included 137 patients with DCM. The mean age was 56.8 ± 13.5 years; there were 115 men (83.9 %). The median follow‑up period was 17 [13; 22] months. During the follow‑up period, 26 patients (19.0 %) died. To identify predictors of short‑term overall mortality, a classification tree model was built based on the CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) algorithm, supplemented with polygenic risk scores (PRS) for DCM and heart failure (HF). The predictive value of the model was assessed using ROC analysis with calculation of the area under the curve (AUC).

Results. In the constructed model, the most significant factors for predicting short‑term overall mortality were parenteral administration of furosemide during the index hospitalization, a high genetic risk according to the CH PGS005079 scale (threshold value 0.42), ferritin levels below 101 ng/mL, and the presence of signs of overload in the systemic circulation. The proportion of correctly classified cases was 81.0%, and the probability of misclassification was 18.9%. According to the ROC analysis, the AUC of the model was 0.786 (p<0.0001), the sensitivity was 81.0%, and the specificity was 61.4%.

Conclusion. The prognosis for short‑term overall mortality in patients with DCM is associated with the need for parenteral administration of loop diuretics during the index hospitalization, reduced ferritin levels, a high genetic predisposition to heart failure according to polygenic risk scores PGS005079, and signs of more pronounced decompensation of heart failure with involvement of the systemic circulation.

Keywords: полигенные шкалы риска, дилатационная кардиомиопатия, краткосрочная летальность