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Выделение периферийных территорий России по показателям демографического развития на конец 2010-х годов
The paper proposes the application of the core-periphery approach to the analysis of demographic processes based on demographic criteria rather than on geographical ones. Migration and demographic modernization are considered as components of a demographic interaction between central and peripheral municipalities: the periphery supplies the core with resources (human capital) through the process of migration, leading to the emergence of social and technological innovations in the core, which spread to the periphery and induce the modernization of fertility and mortality. The concept of demographic peripherality is introduced. We propose a methodology for scoring demographic peripherality based on three indicators: the crude rate of net internal migration; the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate; and the share of deaths from communicable diseases and injuries in the total number of deaths. Such estimates are obtained for Russian municipalities at the end of the 2010s. The result is compared with the assessment of “socio-economic peripherality”, based on the indicators of proximity to large cities, the presence of large enterprises, housing improvement, and the quality of road infrastructure. The results point to the existence of a vast area of demographic periphery, covering the Asian part of the country and the north and east of European Russia. It is characterized by negative net migration, relatively high fertility, and a high share of exogenous causes of death. It is contrasted with demographically central areas with lower fertility and progressive mortality structure: Central Russia, the vicinity of St. Petersburg, partially the Volga region and the European South. Differences in the spatial distribution of indicators of demographic peripherality are noted: intraregional differentiation matters for net migration, interregional northeastern gradient matters for mortality structure, and both these divisions matter for fertility rates. The migration balance and, to a lesser extent, the fertility rates are linked to the selected indicators of socio-economic peripherality; no such dependence was found for the share of exogenous causes in the mortality structure. The results of the study indicate a fundamental possibility of studying the core-periphery differences in fertility and mortality at the interregional level and testify to the difference between the geographical and demographic sense of the concepts of “core” and “periphery”. A promising direction of research is to establish cause-and-effect relationships that generate demographic core-periphery differences.