Youth bulges and political instability in West Africa: Linking governance, demographics, and political dynamics

Вестник РГГУ. 2025. No. 3. P. 10–28.

Japheth B. A., Alisa R. Shishkina, Andrey V. Korotayev

This study investigates the complex interplay between demographic pressures, governance quality, and political instability in West Africa, with a specific focus on the role of youth bulges in shaping national outcomes. Drawing on systems thinking and mediation analysis, the research posits that large youth populations, while often considered latent sources of instability, only become politically disruptive in the presence of weak, exclusionary governance structures. Using panel data from 15 West African countries between 2010 and 2023, the study employs multiple linear regression to assess the predictive power of youth unemployment, governance quality, income inequality, and literacy on political instability. The findings reveal that governance quality and youth unemployment are the most statistically significant predictors, with governance acting as a critical mediating variable that either buffers or amplifies the effects of youth disempowerment. The study further introduces a systems-based framework identifying key leverage points, such as civic education, institutional reform, and youth economic inclusion, that can disrupt cycles of instability and convert demographic pressure into a developmental dividend. Policy implications urge a shift from
reactive security interventions to proactive governance reform, positioning youth not as threats but as central agents of transformation in West Africa’s fragile democracies.

Keywords: governance, demographics, youth bulges, West Africa, political dynamics

Publication based on the results of: State Resilience and National Security of Russia in the Context of the World Order Transformation (2025)