?
Biases in expert judgements in large-scale S&T Delphi Surveys: How to cope with them?
Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2025. Vol. 218. Article 124223.
When preparing to a new large-scale science and technology (S&T) Foresight study we decided to analyse available previous Delphi surveys in order to assess the results they achieve. The most important issue for us was how to avoid biases in expert judgements, in particular related to reaching convergence in the second round of the survey compared to the first round. This article presents the results, which turned out to be unexpected for us.
The paper is devoted to analyzing the key characteristics of the Delphi method used in large-scale S&T Foresight studies. It provides insight into the major features of the method, its strong and weak points. A closer analysis is paid to potential constraints of using the Delphi method related to expert judgement biases and approaches to cope with them. There were identified three major groups of typical biases in expert judgements in Delphi studies; for each of them a number of approaches proposed to minimize the biases.
Based on analysis of five large-scale national S&T Delphi surveys (conducted in Japan, Germany, UK, and Russia), it was shown that there is a systemic bias in judgements given by experts in their assessment of importance of topics in the second round compared to the first round. It is also shown that in most cases the variance of expert's judgements in the second round of the survey is higher than in the first round, which means that the second round both gives a systemic bias of judgements and in general does not lead to convergence of expert opinions. It leads to a discussion on the approaches and practical instruments, which can increase the quality of Delphi outputs and make them more useful for policy-making.
Publication based on the results of:
Nikulina Y., Jamali Jaghdani T., Götz L. et al., / Series "Working Papers". 2026.
The impact of state subsidies on Russia's post-Soviet dairy output remains controversial; this study provides an empirical analysis of that relationship. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of 123 dairy enterprises in the Leningrad Region spanning the period from 2010 to 2023, we employ stochastic frontier analysis to assess these relationships. The results indicate that subsidies ...
Added: September 30, 2026
Nazarova A. G., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2026 № 3(72) С. 87–104
The article explores how results of constructing aggregate national transfer accounts’ (NTA) estimates can be used for macroeconomic analysis and forecasts of current transfers in home economy. It presents the findings of the author’s study of their transfer modules over retrospective period of more than 10 years. The emphasis in the paper is focused on ...
Added: September 30, 2026
Kapeliushnikov R., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP3 "Проблемы рынка труда". 2026. № WP3/2026/02.
The paper is the first attempt in the Russian literature to assess returns to platform employment in the Russian labor market. The theory offers no clear predictions regarding its impact on workers’ earnings: there might be both a premium and a penalty. We distinguish three groups of workers: employees; self-employed using internet-platforms; self-employed not using ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Gribkova D. E., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2026 № 3 С. 151–176
Global challenges, economic security risks, sociodemographic and environmental processes, and accelerating technological development are creating a fundamentally new context for Public Administration that demands knowledge-based decision-making. The growing interest in proactive and predictive governance has led to the active use of science and technology foresight. However, the governance of scientific and technological development still faces ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Kossov V. V., НИЦ Инфра-М, 2026.
В книге собраны воспоминания автора, занимавшего высокие государственные посты в управлении экономикой СССР и России, внесшего значительный вклад в отечественную экономическую науку и в подготовку экономистов. В воспоминаниях охвачен протяженный период истории страны, от предвоенных лет и ранее до наших дней. Перед читателем предстают яркие моменты экономического развития страны, процессов принятия решений на высочайшем государственном ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Мухаметшин Р. И., Скрыпник Д. В., Экономическая политика 2026 Т. 21 № 4 С. 94–109
The study quantitatively assesses the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy from 2022 to 2024 by estimating the losses due to sanctions and identifying the factors that shaped GDP during this period. The assessment is based on a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX). The model examines GDP and its key components: gross fixed ...
Added: September 27, 2026
М.: КДУ, 2026.
В сборник, подготовленный при финансовой поддержке Высшей школы современных социальных наук МГУ им М.В.Ломоносова, вошли статьи участников 2-й Международной научно-практической конференции «Современные проблемы управления: исследования, диагностика, решения», организованной высшей школой современных социальных наук МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова 9-10 октября 2025 г. в Москве. Авторы статей, вошедших в сборник, являются как опытными исследователями в области менеджмента ...
Added: September 26, 2026
Reshetnikova K., Решетников А. К., Маркетинг в России и за рубежом 2025 № 4 С. 69–77
Tourism as an industry became prominent only in recent decades, however it plays an important role in soft power as a diplomacy tool that can shape an image of a country in order to attract visitors and boost its economy. In today's digital age, the Internet plays a key role in shaping travelers’ perceptions of ...
Added: September 26, 2026
Volpe V., Palladino R., Storlazzi A., British Food Journal 2026 P. 1–27
Purpose
The application of digital technologies in food information is profoundly transforming how consumers access, interpret and use nutritional information. This paper systematically reviews digital technologies integrated into food labelling systems and evaluates their impact on consumer behaviour, transparency and informed decision-making.
Design/methodology/approach
A systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted following the PRISMA protocol, covering peer-reviewed studies published ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Bo S., Christofi M., Battisti E. et al., Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2026 Vol. 2028 P. 1–13
In the face of rising sustainability expectations and limited resources, startups must balance financial objectives with ESG (environmental, social, and governance) goals under uncertainty. This study examines how ESG behavior influences external resource acquisition, financing choices, and strategic outcomes in early-stage enterprises. Drawing on the entrepreneurial learning perspective, we argue that startups refine ESG strategies ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Kilinc-Ata N., Proskuryakova L. N., Natural Resources Forum 2026 P. 1–18
The convergence of energy transition and digitalization represents two pivotal trends in the global economy that complement each other. The decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is facilitated by larger Internet access and more substantial investments in research and development. This study sheds light on the dual impact of digitalization and innovation on CO2 emissions ...
Added: September 25, 2026
М.: ИНФРА-М, 2026.
This textbook synthesizes modern concepts and approaches in the field of project management and is designed for use in project management courses. The material is based on the recommendations of the International Project Management Association (IPMA) and the international standards ISO 21500 and ISO 21502.
It complies with the requirements of the latest generation of Federal ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Vicentin D. C., Salati Marcondes de Moraes G. H., Brandao Fischer B. et al., IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 2026 Vol. 73 P. 4455–4470
International science collaboration countries have expanded considerably in recent years; nevertheless, institutional and organizational barriers and challenges continue to undermine the effectiveness of joint research initiatives. This study examines how such barriers are associated with perceived academic and technological outcomes, drawing on a primary dataset of 396 survey responses from researchers in BRICS-countries-based collaborations. The ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Makushkin M., Деньги и кредит 2026 Т. 85 № 2 С. 82–100
The paper considers the problem of estimating the coupon-free yield curve of Russian bonds in yuan. The relevance of the topic is explained by the increased popularity of yuan-denominated bonds in the Russian market since 2022, as well as the recent appearance of the first federal loan bonds (OFZ) in yuan. Given that the number ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Makushkin M., Финансовый журнал 2026 Т. 18 № 4 С. 27–44
This article examines financial innovations in the Russian corporate bond market as a response to structural changes in the economy following 2022. The tightening of monetary policy has led to prohibitively high interest rates for domestic companies, while the sanctions have closed access to external capital markets. Despite these constraints, Russian firms have successfully adapted ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Festa G., D'Amato A., Palladino R. et al., European Journal of Innovation Management 2026 Vol. 29 No. 3 P. 728–744
Purpose
Artificial intelligence (AI) is vastly impacting the digital transformation of societies, economies, businesses, markets and enterprises, at a very fast pace, mostly after the global success of the generative algorithms. In this respect, this study, with an exploratory intention, aims to provide evidence about the fundamental issues of AI, particularly if generative, when adapted to ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Grimaldi M., Troisi O., Papa A. et al., The Journal of Technology Transfer 2026 Vol. 51 P. 1341–1392
Digital transformation and the possibility to collect large amount of data, the so-called big data, from different sources can lead to the redefinition of business processes, models and infrastructures. In this respect, data-driven decision making (DDDM) emphasizes the need to rethink management practices to view data as a driving force that can improve the effectiveness ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Tripathi S., Kabra S., Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences 2026 Vol. 19 P. 1–24
Cities become more productive and enjoyable places to live with improved transportation management. However, most cities in developing countries still lack it. In this context, the present study examines the relationship between the different types of vehicles (measured by passenger and freight vehicles) and urbanization (measured by city population size and density) in India. We ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Bergougui B., Ghosh S., Doğan B. et al., Energy Conversion and Management: X 2026 Vol. 30 P. 1–18
The allocation of public budgets to research and development plays a vital role in advancing climate welfare and facilitating the energy transition. Energy transition focuses on sustainable development goal −7 (SDG-7). By discussing the importance of energy transition and research and development, the current study elaborates on the pathway to resilient energy. This study investigates ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Bobrova A., Никитина И. А., Философский журнал 2026 Т. 19 № 1 С. 163–177
The problems of cognitive biases never stop worrying the minds of specialists from dif- ferent fields. This article demonstrates the contribution that logical-philosophical research can make to the studies of these issues. Due to its strict nature, logic exposes problems that may go unnoticed within psychology. We discuss the logical modeling of cognitive biases, such as ...
Added: March 5, 2026
Rocheva A., Varshaver E., Ivanova N., , in: Migration Research in a Digitized World.: Springer, 2022. P. 35–57.
Choosing a methodology for migrant surveys usually is a complicated issue for a number of reasons, including the lack of information about sampling frames, and migrants’ status as a hard-to-reach population. The spread of social media usage among migrants has led researchers to look at the potential that Social Networking Sites (SNS) have for migration ...
Added: November 10, 2022
Lukinskiy V., Lukinsky V., Sokolov B. et al., , in: Advances in Production Management Systems. Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems: IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference, APMS 2021, Nantes, France, September 5–9, 2021, Proceedings* 5.: Switzerland: Springer, 2021. P. 477–485.
Added: September 9, 2021
van de Vijver F., , in: Cross-cultural analysis: methods and applications, second edition.: L.: Routledge, 2018. P. 3–43.
Equivalence studies are coming of age. Thirty years ago there were few conceptual models and statistical techniques to address sources of systematic measurement error in cross-cultural studies (for early examples, see Clearly & Hilton, 1968; Lord, 1977, 1980; Poortinga, 1971). This picture has changed; in the last decades conceptual models and statistical techniques have been ...
Added: October 29, 2018
Ena O., Abdrakhmanova G., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 121–138
Purpose
Developing methodically sound approaches to defining and analysing measurements of sectoral science and technology priorities is a key pre-requisite of a successful and effective state science, technology and innovation management system. This article presents the results of research into the evolution of Russia’s science and technology priorities in information and communication technologies (ICT) based on ...
Added: March 27, 2017