ВЛИЯНИЕ ОБЪЯВЛЕНИЯ СТАВКИ РЕФИНАНСИРОВАНИЯ НА ЦЕНЫ АКЦИЙ БАНКОВ

Наука и практика. Научно-аналитический журнал РЭУ им. Г.В. Плеханова. 2025. Т. 17. № 1 (57). С. 35–53.

Galanova A., Федоренко А. В.

Central bank decisions to lower refinancing rates all over the world are usually the result of slowing inflation and improved economic welfare. However, this raises a question of how this affects the main "credit" participants in the financial system - banks and their stock prices. A decline in the market interest rate is a well-known factor of the increase in the market prices of shares and other profitable financial assets. However, in relation to shares of banks, this factor is usually related to a decrease in bank profits from lending activities. This smooths out the influence of a one-time change in the interest rate on the bank shares’ prices. The article is devoted to the identification of presence or absence of a link between changes in the refinancing rate and the share prices of banks on the Moscow and Hong Kong stock exchanges over the past 20 years using the event study method. A study of the short-term impact of changes in key interest rates on bank share prices after the announcement of the central bank's decision shows that the effect of each individual interest rate change is practically not observed.

Keywords: фондовый рынок, ставка рефинансирования, центральный банк, событийный анализ, ключевая ставка, рыночная цена акции