Роль климата как центробежной и центростремительной силы в международных отношениях региона Центральной Азии

Псковский регионологический журнал. 2025. Т. 21. № 3. С. 3–16.

Коломина А. М.

The article examines the multidirectional impact of climate change on the transformation of international relations in Central Asia. It focuses on its role as both a catalyst for regional cooperation and a source of conflict. The relevance of the study is due to the growing vulnerability of the region, where dependence on agriculture, water scarcity and population growth are aggravated by climate risks that threaten stability and security. The goal of the work is to identify the mechanisms through which climate change restructures political and economic interactions between states, as well as to determine the ways to minimize the potential for conflict. The scientific novelty lies in the comprehensive analysis of the climate factor as an element of foreign policy, combining environmental, economic and geopolitical aspects. The methodology includes the study of regional initiatives, international agreements, and conflict cases. The practical significance of the study is related to the development of recommendations for integrating the climate agenda into development strategies, including adaptation to the "green" economy, strengthening institutions and balancing national interests with multi-level cooperation. The conclusions emphasize the need to synchronize the efforts of the Central Asian countries to reduce the risks of migration, economic crises and resource conflicts. The paper contributes to the climate security debate by offering a framework for sustainable engagement in the face of global environmental challenges.

Keywords: международные отношения, Центральная Азия, Central Asia, climate change, International relations, мировая политика и Центральная Азия, ресурсные конфликты, resource conflicts, климатические изменения, climate security, климатическая безопасность