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Когнитивный анализ возможности устойчивого развития сельских территорий
The article presents a number of results from the study of rural areas sustainable development as well as the agro-industrial complex possibilities, obtained by using cognitive simulation modeling complex systems. The goal was to analyze the complex system stability “Quality and standard of living, rural areas” as a complex dynamic property of the controllability class. The article consistently examines the “rural territory” and “sustainable development” concepts, highlights their main features, and provides brief information about cognitive simulation modeling of complex systems. Based on statistical and expert data from the Rostov region agro-industrial complex, an appropriate model system was developed - a rural territory cognitive map and this model properties analysis was carried out. The analysis of its main properties (paths and cycles, resistance to disturbances and structural stability, the connectivity and complexity analysis, possible development scenarios, etc.) showed that the model does not contradict theoretical and practical assumptions about the real system. The conducted cognitive research stages have been illustrated by the corresponding results obtained by using the author's software system CMCS (Cognitive modeling complex system). The rationale for the cognitive map development, carried out at the first stage of the study, has been given. The second stage results of cognitive research have been illustrated: conclusions about the structural system stability have been drawn. The existence of ways to achieve the goal of sustainable territory development has been investigated. The results of the third stage of the study, devoted to the development of possible scenarios for the development of situations, have been presented. The results have been illustrated with examples of six scenarios, the comparison of which according to the main factors influencing sustainable development made it possible to determine one of the possible best scenarios for the sustainable Rostov region development.