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Демографическое развитие России до 2030 года глазами экспертов (по результатам экспертного опроса 2023 года)
Гл. 1.3. С. 93–126.
The results of the 2023 expert survey of demographers on 4 scenarios of the country's macroeconomic development on trends fertility, mortality and migration are analyzed. The results of the population forecast are presented, based on scenarios of changes in fertility, mortality and migration, developed based on the results of this expert survey.
In book
М.: Прометей, 2024.
Zakharov S. V., AlterEconomics (ранее - Журнал экономической теории) 2026 Т. 23 № 2 С. 429–447
This article examines changes in the quantum and structural characteristics of period and cohort fertility in Russia in the context of pro-natalist demographic policy pursued since 2006. The study assesses the significance of recent decades’ shifts for total fertility, the age profile of mothers, and their distribution by number of children born. The analysis draws ...
Added: July 7, 2026
Barsukova S., Denisova-Schmidt E., Мир России: Социология, этнология 2026 Vol. 35 No. 1 P. 106–139
The Russo-Ukrainian military conflict has forced many people in both countries to leave their homes. Based on original data sets collected in the capitals of Armenia and Georgia in November and December 2023, including in-depth interviews with migrants and domestic experts as well as participant observation, this paper focuses on the recent migration wave from ...
Added: June 15, 2026
Аракчеев В. А., Российская история 2024 № 1 С. 31–48
The article is a critical analysis of K.Y. Yerusalimsky's hypothesis and a polemic with him on the problems of enserfment and migration in Russia in the late XVI–first half of the XVII century. It is shown that the complex structure of Russian society predetermined nonlinear forms of enserfment of peasants. The understanding of such phenomena ...
Added: June 11, 2026
Kravtsova M., Musaev A. U., Welzel C., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Elaborating on Welzel et al.'s "Cool Water Theory," our study zooms into the more limited (albeit still varied) framework conditions of Russia's huge territory. Within Russia's confines, we examine how the combination of moderately cool seasons with steady rain (i.e., Cool Water) affects sub-national areas' contemporary societal progress in two modernization indicators: material prosperity in ...
Added: June 3, 2026
Van de Wall B., Political Theory 2026
The defense of gay rights and other liberal values by some right-wing populists is often perceived as an opportunistic strategy to justify anti-Muslim policies. But this explanation for co-optation of liberal values by parties that are considered to be in conflict with liberalism circumvents a proper analysis of the phenomenon. I will therefore investigate this ...
Added: June 3, 2026
Mkrtchyan N. V., Известия РАН. Серия географическая 2026 Т. 90 № 1 С. 231–245
Objective of the study is to assess the provision of all settlements in four regions of the Russian Near
North (Vologda, Kostroma, Kirov, and Yaroslavl oblasts) with social infrastructure facilities and to
analyze whether the migration balance of settlements is associated with varying levels of provision of
these facilities. The study is based on data collected from open ...
Added: May 13, 2026
Kazenin K., Sergei Zakharov, Billingsley S., Population, space and place 2026 Vol. 32 No. 2 Article e70241
Russia's Maternal Capital policy initially increased total fertility rates, stimulating much discussion on whether it would result in more births or only earlier births. Effects of that policy upon different ethnic groups within Russia, however, have not received systematic attention. Varying demographic, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of ethnic groups in Russia provide a unique opportunity ...
Added: May 5, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2026 Т. 29 № 1 С. 228–258
The high fertility rates that persist in Tropical African countries are a kind of anomaly, since other developing countries had lower fertility rates when having similar socio-economic development indicators — phenomenon dubbed “African pronatalism” in Western demography. Meanwhile, the lag in fertility transition contributed greatly to Africa's economic backwardness since independence, which is why the ...
Added: April 11, 2026
Stadnik N., Демографическое обозрение 2023 Т. 10 № 2 С. 18–40
Regional fertility differentiation is a significant factor of regional inequality in the long term. As previous studies show, the first demographic transition in developed countries, which was accompanied by the development of public institutions and means of communication, resulted in a surge in regional fertility differentiation followed by an unprecedented decrease.
In this study, an attempt ...
Added: April 9, 2026
Liliya А. Rodionova, Elena D. Kopnova, Kamalendinova S. et al., Population and Economics 2026 No. 10(2) P. 92–114
This article proposes an approach to forecasting fertility using Google Trends search query statistics. Unlike existing studies on fertility forecasting, this paper introduces a method for aggregating thematic search queries using machine learning techniques, reducing the dimensionality of search queries through principal component analysis, and incorporating a lag structure of search queries ranging from 1 ...
Added: April 7, 2026
Cherviakova A. A., Makarentseva A. O., Biryukova S., Социологический журнал 2026 Т. 32 № 1 С. 123–141
Novel measures in Russian family and demographic policy include support for women who have given birth while pursuing vocational education. This is driven by the government’s concerns about the postponement of motherhood, and by a desire to reduce the risks of economic vulnerability for this group of women with children. In this paper we examine ...
Added: March 30, 2026
Karacharovskiy V., ЭКО 2026 Т. 56 № 2 С. 85–108
The article introduces the concept of sovereign human capital as a form of human capital that meets the needs of a sovereign economy. The criteria for assessing the SCC are proposed and justified from the point of view of: (1) unwillingness to "drain" within the migration processes, (2) spatial allocation ensuring the connectivity of the ...
Added: March 24, 2026
Grigoryev L. M., Современная мировая экономика 2025 Т. 3 № 2 С. 6–26
The American Revolution was a complex process, the military and political events of which are well documented. This article focuses on the socioeconomic aspects of the process in which the 13 American colonies broke away from the British Empire. By this point, the colonies had reached a level of development comparable to that of the ...
Added: March 21, 2026
Фаузер В. В., Smirnov A., Арктика: экология и экономика 2020 № 4 С. 4–18
Population migration continues to be the main factor affecting the population dynamics in the Russian Arctic. The article discusses the theoretical provisions that reveal the essence of population migration, presents the main migration theories that explain the mobility of the population in the Arctic conditions. The object of the study is 75 urban and municipal ...
Added: March 19, 2026
Smirnov A., Экономические и социальные перемены: факты, тенденции, прогноз 2021 Т. 12 № 6 С. 258–274
Russia has achieved a high level of Internet connectivity and the use of digital technologies; this helps to accumulate and systematize huge amounts of population data. Modern challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, require a more prompt and detailed analysis of the demographic situation. Understanding the information collected by digital platforms and services can improve ...
Added: March 18, 2026
Smirnov A., Экономика региона 2022 Т. 18 № 1 С. 133–145
The nature and intensity of migration processes are constantly changing. Demographic statistics are not suitable for obtaining up-to-date information and making timely decisions in the field of demographic and social policy. Thus, digital demography is becoming increasingly important, as this area of population research uses new methods and data sources resulting from the Internet expansion ...
Added: March 18, 2026