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Working paper

Kondratiev Long Cycles: New Information About Discussions In The Ussr In The 1920s

Mustafin A. R.
This article is devoted to a reconstruction of Soviet discussions on long cycles based on an analysis of a wide range of unknown and little-known historiographical sources and archival materials. The role of discussions in the formation of assessments and ideas about long cycles is shown. In particular, we show that the controversy between Kondratiev and Gosplan about the economic development of the USSR had a noticeable effect on the negative evaluation of Kondratiev’s method for identifying long cycles. The study defines the relations between Kondratiev’s views on the problem of long cycles and his probabilistic-statistical approach to the analysis of society