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Working paper

Development of Navigation Services and Devices – Evidence from a case study in Russia

Mikhail Bokov, Razheva (Edelkina) A., Klubova M., Thurner T., Natalia Velikanova, Vishnevskiy K.
The paper assesses the development of the market for navigation services and devices based on the results of a recently held Foresight exercise on monitoring of global technology trends. The future of the market for Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) devices is largely influenced by grand challenges (i.e. lifestyle change, technical safety, urbanization, rural development, food security, etc.) that determine the pathway for extending use of GNSS signal in different sectors of the economy. Today, satellite positioning technology is used by transporters, carriers, motorists, surveyors, builders, etc. through a wide array of devices — like mobile phones or multimedia devices with built-in receiver modules. Different Foresight methods and tools were used for analyzing the market structure and volumes of navigation services and devices and to detect potential future market developments. The main technical characteristics of GNSS are compared in order to reveal their impact on the quality of the navigation signal essential for the end-users. Investigating the future dynamics of this market in Russia on the basis of expert estimations and governmental strategic documents, the authors conclude that the commercialization of GNSS in Russia is possible only in certain segments, mainly navigation modules for personal vehicles, surveying and mapping equipment as well as consumer electronics.