Формирование долгосрочного уровня доходности на рынках государственного долга развивающихся стран
In this paper the influence of branch tendencies of development of small retail business on dynamics of one of the leading quantitative indices of economic development of Russia - the index of physical volume (IPV) of the retail trade turnover is investigated.
The response of the macro aggregate to the artificial shocks entered into dynamics of the not quantitative composite indicators (CI) characterizing business tendencies of small trade business is simulated. For carrying out such analysis there was involved, based on modern VAR approaches, the impulse response function constructed on the VECM model.
This article deals with the influence of different factors on the RTSI in the period from March 2007 to August 2009. The period is further subdivided into three subperiods − pre-crisis, high oil prices and time of crisis ones. The stationarity testing, the Granger causality analysis, the analysis of cointegration, the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition let us get the information on the degree of oil price impact, the S&P-500 and FTSE-100 stock indices one and the «investors' fear gauge» index VIX influence on the RTSI. The time series cointegration analysis demonstrates the presence of the cointegration relations. The results of the research can be applied in making scenario forecasts based on the middle-run and long-run oil prices.