Влияние уровня финансовой грамотности на инфляционные ожидания: оценка на данных псевдопанели по России

Банк России , 2025. № 146.

Туманянц К. А., Кулешов Ф., Penikas H. I., Зуев В. Е.

Many academic studies uncover systemic differences in the inflation expectations for heterogenous groups of population. Financial literacy might be one of determinants for such differences, in Russia also (Andreev et al., 2024). Our study confirms this fact by expanding the data window from one year used in (Andreev et al., 2024) to three years. Moreover, we find that more financially literate respondents have lower inflation expectations. For the purpose of our research, we consolidate data from the two sources – inflation expectations survey and consumer (household) finance – by creating pseudo-panels. We study answers to both quantitative and qualitative questions. We also control for the major social and demographic factors. We claim that there is statistically significant, but non-linear association between the inflation expectations and financial literacy. Our finding holds for the inflation expectations at various horizons: for the short-term ones (for one month ahead), for the mid-run ones (for one year) and for the long-term ones (for three years). The non-linear nature of association comes from the fact that the same quantitative difference in-between financial literacy levels result in the wider difference in the inflation expectations for the less financially literate respondents, compared to the more literate ones. We find that the future inflation expectations are related to the financial literacy of the respondent via the channel of the observed (perceived) inflation. More financially literate respondents evaluate current inflation as being lower than the levels perceived by their less literate colleagues. Same time their future inflation forecasts are associated with the current inflation values perceived by them. More financially literate respondents present the current inflation numbers which are much closer to that computed by Rosstat, that the other respondents do.

Keywords: инфляционные ожидания, pseudo-panel, псевдопанель, inflation expectations