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The Forward Guidance Puzzle and Anchored Inflation Expectations
Ekonomicheskaya Politika. 2024. Vol. 19. No. 6. P. 6–25.
Keywords: инфляционные ожиданияinflation expectationsограниченная рациональностьtrend inflationbounded rationalityкоммуникационная политикаforward guidanceтрендовая инфляция
Publication based on the results of:
Churakova I., Кумар В., Dianli Xitong Baohu yu Kongzhi/Power System Protection and Control 2026 No. 54 (3) P. 428–454
Purpose
This study examines the impact of Predictive Intelligence (PI) and Real-Time Data Insights (RDI) on Corporate Financial Sustainability (CFS), while controlling for organizational factors, industry factors, and AI-related risk factors. The research aims to determine whether these analytic capabilities (PI and RDI) individually and jointly contribute to long-term financial resilience and performance in modern organizations.
Theoretical ...
Added: September 4, 2026
Elyashevich I., Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика 2026 Т. 61 № 3 С. 363–384
The study examined the properties of the normal distribution of the values of shipments of stocks of various categories from warehouses of large industrial companies. As a result, it was revealed that the use of the classical normal distribution, in some cases, may give incorrect results, since the values of stock shipments are positive values, ...
Added: September 3, 2026
Методы оценки структурных изменений в векторных и матричных агрегатах макроэкономических показателей
Lesnykh M., Motorin V., Тенденции экономического развития в XXI веке: Материалы VIІІ Международной научно-практической конференции, Республик Беларусь 2026 P. 233–236
The paper deals with comparative analysis of various methods for measuring and studying dynamics of structural macroeconomic indicators that reflect the peculiarities in a movement of multi-component macroeconomic systems. The metric, trigonometric and angular measures of structural changes are considered within vector formalism. Intertemporal orthogonal decomposition of a vector aggregate into the sum of quantity ...
Added: September 3, 2026
Zaruckiy M., Motorin V., Тенденции экономического развития в XXI веке: Материалы VIІІ Международной научно-практической конференции 2026 P. 237–240
The paper is devoted to developing the complex of input–output models for evaluating a potential receptivity of an economy to import substitution in final use and intermediate consumption ...
Added: September 3, 2026
Koshcheev D., Isopeskul O., М.: Инфра-М, 2027.
государственным служащим.
The monograph presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of research related to the assessment of the tourist potential of administrative-territorial units (ATUs) from 1882 to 2024. For the first time, scientific schools are identified, and the author's approach to predictive values and a methodology for the quantitative assessment of the ...
Added: September 3, 2026
М.: МАКС Пресс, 2026.
The book consists of materials submitted by Russian and Foreign scientists to the Organizing
Committee of the All-Russian Round Table “Logic and Paradoxes of Modern Education Manage
ment”. The round table was held at the Faculty of Sociology of Lomonosov Moscow State University
on June 08, 2026. The texts are published in author's edition. Organizing Committee`s point of ...
Added: September 2, 2026
Proskuryakova L. N., Asia-Pacific Tech Monitor 2026 Vol. 43 No. 2 P. 13–24
Innovative financing tools and models have proved their efficiency in supporting the adoption and scale-up of emerging technologies. They have been instrumental in different regions, including the Asia-Pacific region, which stands at the forefront of technological innovation. Studies point to several persistent emerging technological constraints that include high upfront capital costs, perceived risks, and limited ...
Added: September 1, 2026
Tatarinov A., Вопросы статистики 2026 Т. 33 № 2 С. 19–39
The second part of the paper continues the examination of the new methodological provisions of the system of national accounts, building on the discussion initiated in the previous publication. It analyzes key changes in the accounting of economic transactions, with particular attention to digital services, globalization, the composition of production costs under the sum‑of‑costs valuation method, and ...
Added: September 1, 2026
Abashkin V., Abdrakhmanova G., Artemov S. V. et al., ИСИЭЗ ВШЭ, 2026.
Одиннадцатый выпуск аналитического доклада, подготовленный Институтом статистических исследований и экономики знаний Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики» в рамках деятельности Российской кластерной обсерватории, посвящен анализу инновационного развития российских регионов на основе комплекса рейтинговых оценок. Исследование базируется на системе показателей, характеризующих социально-экономические условия инновационной деятельности, научно-технический потенциал, уровни инновационной и экспортной активности, качество региональной инновационной
политики. Используемые ...
Added: September 1, 2026
Morozkina A., Есаян М. А., Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право 2025 Т. 18 № 4 С. 169–190
In the context of budget constraints, the allocation of development finance is one of the important research questions. This article proposes a study of the allocation of sovereign financing in the Eurasian region in 2008-2022 using new data (the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) sovereign financing database). The analysis shows that the most ...
Added: August 31, 2026
СПб.: Издательство СПбГЭУ, 2025.
Вашему вниманию предлагается 19-й ежегодный сборник научных статей по вопросам региональной экономики и территориального развития.
Несмотря на сложное положение в экономике, продолжает развиваться межрегиональное сотрудничество регионов СЗФО. Активно взаимодействуют Санкт-Петербург и Ленинградская область в части развития единого транспортно-логистического комплекса. Идет формирование единого рынка труда на основе баланса трудовых ресурсов города и области. Разрабатывается единая схема размещения ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Asemota M. O., DISCOVER ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2026 Vol. 6 Article 892
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping work and human resource management, yet existing reviews largely treat competencies as secondary outcomes of AI adoption and offer limited theory-driven integration of how competency management itself is transforming. This study addresses that gap by systematically examining how competency management has evolved in AI-enabled contexts, how dominant theories explain AI-driven ...
Added: August 31, 2026
DISCOVER ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2026 Vol. 6 Article 892
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping work and human resource management, yet existing reviews largely treat competencies as secondary outcomes of AI adoption and offer limited theory-driven integration of how competency management itself is transforming. This study addresses that gap by systematically examining how competency management has evolved in AI-enabled contexts, how dominant theories explain AI-driven ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Petrov I., Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 2026
This paper studies a social-norm model in which agents choose effort in response to their own productivity and the efforts of their neighbours. We analyse how links between groups with different productivity levels affect equilibrium effort and derive the intergroup linking intensity that maximises aggregate effort. We work in a stylised two-group stochastic block setting ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Svetlana Grigorieva, Narmin Isaeva, Aliya Azizova et al., Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2026 Vol. 20 No. 1 P. 75–84
This paper identifies the determinants of green bonds on global markets, China and Russia and evaluates the hedging effect of these instruments. We contribute to the existing literature by (1) studying the emerging markets such as Russia and China, (2) providing comparative analysis of the impact of identical factors on green bond yields on global, ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Финагин М. И., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2026 Т. 30 № 1 С. 128–153
This paper conducts comprehensive stress-testing of the sensitivity of a heuristic switching model. This model explains the phenomenon of fat tails in the distribution of macroeconomic data, which classic New Keynesian models fail to replicate. The solution lies in relaxing the assumption of full rationality. In the model, agents rely on a selection of simple ...
Added: April 7, 2026
Vorchik A., Мамышев М. А., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2025.
In this paper, we develop a formal mathematical model aimed to explain the Dunning-Kruger effect that beginners systematically overestimate their own competence in various fields of knowledge and activity. We argue that the Dunning-Kruger effect arises from the emotional nature of confidence combined with unknown unknowns that it simply can not take into account due ...
Added: February 11, 2026
Болячин Ю. В., Воинова А. А., Кротова Ю. И. et al., / Банк России. Серия Доклады Банка России "Доклад об экономических исследованиях". 2025. № 156.
Implied inflation expectations are the expectation values derived from the question about particular goods’ prices or the values of a basket of goods. We use internal and external surveys to compare implied and direct (conventional) estimates when the single inflation range is chosen in the latter case. By checking against the known stylized facts about inflation expectations, we compare all the combinations of question about them. We find that implied perceived inflation and inflation expectations are higher than their direct peers. ...
Added: December 8, 2025
Gulenkov I., Journal of Macroeconomics 2025 Vol. 86 Article 103728
A remarkably protracted surge in inflation in the U.S. has had a profound impact on the price- and wage-setting behavior. These changes suggest that the economy could have entered a regime characterized by higher trend inflation. While the impact of trend inflation on monetary policy effectiveness is well-studied, the effects on fiscal policy transmission has ...
Added: November 12, 2025
Afanasev K., The Journal of the New Economic Association 2025 No. 3(68) P. 43–51
This study examines moderating effect of income expectations on the influence of inflation expectations on consumption decisions in a laboratory setting. Using a multi-round life-cycle consumption-saving model, the research manipulates participants’ beliefs on the future prices and income. Contrary to the hypothesis that expected income growth would attenuate the effect of expected price increases on ...
Added: October 21, 2025
Полехина А. А., Гусева А. Д., Деньги и кредит 2025 № 3 С. 28–62
Статья посвящена созданию индекса восприятия Банка России в Telegram-каналах, который может выступать как опережающий индикатор доверия населения к регулятору (корреляция с опросными данными «инФОМ» – 74%). Индекс оценивается на неструктурированных данных из 1400 Telegram-каналов. Это первый подобный индекс, который рисует объемную картину информационного поля, разделяя каналы по типам и ключевым сферам деятельности Банка России – ...
Added: October 14, 2025
Kempf H., Kuznetsova O., Economic Theory 2026 Vol. 81 No. 4 P. 1175–1227
We study a non-cooperative communication game being played by national policymakers in a two-country economy including a beauty-contest argument in the utility function of agents and cross-border technology spillovers. Each policymaker receives some information either solely on the home technology idiosyncratic shock or on both shocks. She has the choice of revealing or not the ...
Added: September 3, 2025
Гуров И. Н., Елицур Д. А., Зуев В. Е. et al., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 6 С. 63–93
Исследование основано на уникальном для России замере Фонда «Общественное мнение» (инФОМ) в рамках опроса Банка России по инфляционным ожиданиям в мае 2024 г. Неопределенность инфляционных ожиданий составляет 10 п. п. и положительно связана с их значением и возрастом респондентов. Неопределенность выше у респондентов, которые считают время подходящим для покупок, ниже у мужчин и снижается с ...
Added: June 18, 2025
Туманянц К. А., Кулешов Ф., Penikas H. I. et al., / Банк России. Серия Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях "Доклады Банка России". 2025. № 146.
Many academic studies uncover systemic differences in the inflation expectations for heterogenous groups of population. Financial literacy might be one of determinants for such differences, in Russia also (Andreev et al., 2024). Our study confirms this fact by expanding the data window from one year used in (Andreev et al., 2024) to three years. Moreover, we find that more financially literate respondents have lower inflation expectations.
For the purpose of our research, we consolidate data from the two sources – ...
Added: March 28, 2025