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Регрессионное моделирование вооруженной и невооруженной революционной дестабилизации в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности
Гл. 13. С. 211–244.
Korotayev A., Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Political Studies Review 2026 P. 1–22
In recent years, a kind of “Berlin Wall” has emerged between the study of “revolutions” and “maximalist campaigns.” Although scholars in these two traditions analyze closely related phenomena, they use different terminology, bodies of literature, and empirical conventions. We argue that this separation is analytically costly and prevents fruitful dialogue. On one hand, this leads ...
Added: August 8, 2026
Talking about the [same] revolution? A comparative analysis of main datasets of revolutionary events
Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Defence and peace economics 2026 P. 1–31
We conduct a comparative analysis of the main datasets on revolutionary events, including The Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO, versions 1.3 and 2.1), Cross-National Time-Series (CNTS), Revolutionary Episodes Dataset by Mark Beissinger, Revolutionary Database by HSE University (CSRA), and Historical Regime Data (HRD). To compare these sources systematically, we develop several complementary empirical instruments designed to identify and interpret differences across datasets. We ...
Added: July 17, 2026
Гусейнов Р. И., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 15–27
This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal stability and revolutionary onsets. Classic researchers of revolutions, such as Jack Goldstone, have provided theoretical arguments for the importance of fiscal factors, but any substantial quantitative cross-national large-n research has not been conducted yet. Logistic regression analysis with an interaction term that we have performed confirms our main ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Zhdanov A., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2026 Т. 38 № 2 С. 118–167
Imagining a cosmic future touches on many topics — but typically avoids the topic of death, burial, and attitudes toward deceased ancestors. Most of these developments concern life-support systems. This article analyzes the debate between American anthropologist Elizabeth Povinelli and Russian cosmists. The subject of this debate is immortality and attitudes toward ancestors in the ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Zhukova O., Философский журнал (Российская Федерация) 2026 Т. 19 № 2 С. 5–22
The article examines one of the key problems of the philosophy of Russian history related to the assessment of the political and moral consequences of the Decembrist revolt of 1825. It is shown that the December conspiracy of the aristocracy destroyed the patriotic consensus between the government and society that had developed after the victory ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Gužvica S., Tokovi Istorije 2026 No. 1 P. 15–52
The paper analyzes the intellectual climate and political circumstances that shaped and heavily influenced the literary imagination and the semantic horizon of two novels—The Optimists: the Novel of a Revolution by Ervin Sinkó and Like a Tear in the Ocean: A Trilogy by Manès Sperber. Besides introductory remarks and conclusion, the paper’s structure is threefold, ...
Added: May 7, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
Added: April 21, 2026
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Julia Zinkina et al., Critical Sociology 2025 P. 1–20
The theory of revolutions has faced major challenges, one of the most important being how to conceptualize revolutions. The theory currently needs novel foci. One potential novel concept is “coupvolution,” which can be defined as a type of revolutionary events with elements of both a coup and a revolution. We highlight the importance of a ...
Added: November 6, 2025
Ижогин А. А., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2025 Т. 37 № 3 С. 177–213
Existing data on elite splits suggest their significance for revolutionary success, as well as the significance of the defection of primarily security elites to the side of the revolutionary opposition for the success of a revolutionary uprising. The authors, relying on modern political science concepts and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), tested the corresponding hypotheses. The ...
Added: November 1, 2025
Parsamov V., Вопросы философии 2025 № 9 С. 92–102
The name of Joseph de Maistre appears in Berdyaev’s writings throughout his entire oeuvre. The peak of his interest in this thinker falls on the revolution and the first years of emigration. At the center of the article is Berdyaev’s review of the works of French scholars Georges Goyau and Émile Dermengem, contemporary to him, in ...
Added: September 22, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2025. No. 1.
This article aims to shed light on the economic consequences of the nonviolent campaigns (NVCs) across the world. The current era is shaped with various political transformations that are often driven by political movements that engage in NVCs. Some of them are successful and result in regime change while others fail and are unable to ...
Added: September 12, 2025
К прогнозированию вероятности невооруженной революционной дестабилизации методами машинного обучения
Медведев И. А., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2025 Т. 37 № 2 С. 108–141
The authors provide a broad overview of the main applications for machine learning methods in political sociology. They describe history of the transition from simple regression models to complex machine learning models. The reasons for and benefits of this transition are discussed. The authors identify the main uses of machine learning models in related disciplines and ...
Added: August 1, 2025
Zhukova O., Философский журнал 2025 Т. 18 № 2 С. 94–108
This article is devoted to identifying the features of F.A. Stepun’s creative evolution, which resulted in the philosophical concept of Christian culture and history. At the center of consideration of philosopher is the phenomenon of culture as a condition and path of ascent to the Absolute. Stepun thinks of culture as the universal beginning of ...
Added: May 25, 2025
Fain, Egor, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2024 Vol. 15 P. 106–120
A Review Essay on Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev (Springer International Publishing, 2022)& New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region: A Comparative Perspective edited by Leonid Issaev and ...
Added: January 31, 2025
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Ustyuzhanin V. et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 4-5 P. 659–677
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas ...
Added: January 30, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Экономическая социология 2025 Т. 26 № 1 С. 52–89
The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of wealth and income inequality, as well as inequality in human capital, on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions. Using the revolutionary destabilization database from the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) at HSE University, along with data collected by Mark Beissinger, the study analyzes ...
Added: January 29, 2025
Мартынов А. В., В кн.: Литературное наследие Михаила Пришвина: контекст отечественной и мировой культуры.: М.: ИМЛИ РАН, 2024. С. 704–724.
The influence of Western European literature and philosophy on Mikhail Prishvin’s worldview manifests itself at several levels: the culture of everyday life and reaction to external events, historical and philosophical reflection and dialogue of domestic and foreign cultures, cultural transfer and self-identification of the writer with it. The impact was especially evident during the period ...
Added: November 27, 2024
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V., Leonid Grinin et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 3 P. 429–450
The article is the first part of our systematic review of substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. This first part specifically considers the following areas of research ...
Added: November 26, 2024
Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Grinin, Vadim Ustyuzhanin et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 2 P. 257–282
There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct ...
Added: November 26, 2024