Особенности трансформационных процессов: страновой срез
This book provides an in-depth analysis of public opinion patterns among Muslims, particularly in the Arab world. On the basis of data from the World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer Project and the Arab Opinion Index, it compares the dynamics of Muslim opinion structures with global publics and arrives at social scientific predictions of value changes in the region. Using country factor scores from a variety of surveys, it also develops composite indices of support for democracy and a liberal society on a global level and in the Muslim world, and analyzes a multivariate model of opinion structures in the Arab world, based on over 40 variables from 12 countries in the Arab League and covering 67% of the total population of the Arab countries. While being optimistic about the general, long-term trend towards democracy and the resilience of Arab and Muslim civil society to Islamism, the book also highlights anti-Semitic trends in the region and discusses them in the larger context of xenophobia in traditional societies. In light of the current global confrontation with radical Islamism, this book provides vital material for policy planners, academics and think tanks alike.
For nearly four years the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has been shaken the next «round» of the crisis. Clashes on ethnic and religious grounds don’t stop, exacerbated by opposition of various armed groups. Analysis of these dramatic events and issues related to their reconciliation was devoted III conference held 2627 November 2014 in the Institute for African Studies RAS (previous conferences were held earlier in May 2011 and June 2013). There were more than 20 reports; discussed issues related to the exacerbation of socioeconomic, political and ethnoreligious conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa and a new level of these conflicts; the impact of the crisis events on the situation in the other African countries; the further development of the region after the «Arab Spring».
Managing the peaceful transition of authoritarian states to democracy and a market-economic system represents a tremendous challenge. Whether it comes to reconstituting the coherency of the state following armed conflict, expanding participation rights and the rule of law in emerging democracies, overcoming corrupt structures, fighting poverty and inequality, or establishing clear rules for stable market-economic competition, the requirements are enormous, and the pressure on responsible leaders is intense. After all, the quality of political management makes an essential contribution to the success or failure of transformation processes. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) thus systematically places political decision-makers’ steering capability at the heart of its analysis and, as a result, is the only index in the world that measures and compares the quality of governance with self-collected data. This is done in the firm conviction that the ongoing comparative study of transformation processes is invaluable for the successful design of reforms and holds enormous global potential to learn from different political strategies for steering change, even though diverse traditions, power configurations, resources and cultures necessarily make each transformation process unique. The BTI measures and compares transition processes in 129 transformation countries with data collected between 2013 and 2015 and establishes their global rating based on detailed country reports. Now in its seventh edition, it offers the opportunity to understand long-term trends and global developments through the analysis of time-series data. The spotlight on current developments is thus complemented by a decade of data that captures the most varied transformation processes and puts into perspective recent progress and setbacks on the way to democracy and a market economy.
After the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011, explosive global growth was observed for the majority of indicators of sociopolitical destabilization in all parts of the World System. In order to identify the structure of this destabilization wave, we apply a series of statistical techniques such as trend analysis and t-tests to study the degrees of intensification of various instability indicators (as recorded by the Cross-National Time Series database). We reveal explosive global growth in anti-government demonstrations, riots, general strikes, terrorist attacks/guerrilla warfare and purges, as well as in the global integral index of sociopolitical destabilization. On the other hand, no statistically significant growth has been detected for assassinations and major government crises, whereas for such an important indicator of global sociopolitical destabilization, as the global number of coups and coup attempts, we find a statistically significant decrease.
Not all cases of targeted killings occurring in armed conflicts, which could have been regarded to be legal under provisions of IHL, would stay examination under criteria of a new complex approach. Far from majority of these targeted killings would satisfy to the requirements of a prudent preparation and planning, absolute necessity, strict proportionality and an effective investigation. However, as a result, it cannot be argued that all cases of intended use of force against concrete persons suspected to be members of armed groups or civilians taking a direct part in hostilities during armed conflicts are illegal. There remains a small group of situations, in which the whole range of circumstances will justify these actions, but overwhelming majority of them will be situated in the real “combat” sector of military operations. Application of the “complex test” would definitely have a significant impact on the grey areas, rendering almost all of cases belonging to it out of law.