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Regular version of the site

Book chapter

Predictive Model of Strategic Development of a University

P. 459-467.
Nadezhda Titova, Aleksey Shutov.

The paper presents an economic and mathematical model designed to forecast development of a university depending on social and economic changes in the country and the amount of public funding of education. The university's internal decisions how to distribute its budget among operational activities, development, supporting science, and improving educational services and assumed as endogenous variables. The development of the university is viewed as a phase space trajectory defined by the four characteristics: quality of educational services, level of development of R&D and consulting activities, image and financial performance of university.

The choice of parameters meets the major interests of the most important stakeholders: state and society, business and science, labour market, prospective students, and the university staff. The model describes relationships between: a) funds obtainin and spending, b) results of university development along various axes and the investments, c) finance obtained and the results of university development, d) results of the university development in adjacent time intervals. The strenght of the model consists in its practical use confirmed by the first results of modeling.