Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective
The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term world-system dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades.
The article concludes with a section that presents a hypothesis that the change of K-wave upswing and downswing phases correlates significantly with the phases of fluctuations in the relationships between the World System Core and Periphery, as well as with the World System Core changes.
The monograph identified key areas and indicators of the interaction of globalization and regionalization on the basis of the analysis assumptions and characteristics of their manifestations in Russia and the BRICS countries. At present, according to experts, there is a shift of the global economy towards the East, where the economies of the BRICS become a new factor in the development. The BRICS has attracted considerable attention as an alliance that has an unusual geographical and functional parameters. This fact allows to attribute it to the new format of communication between countries. Belonging to the new markets, the BRICS countries are playing a significant role in contemporary international relations and are active participants in a globalization of the world economy. Currently the role of the country in the international arena are basically determined by its economic and political "weight" among the leaders. A comparison of major economic indicators in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South - Africa and other countries is considered. It is noted that the BRICS countries can be an important element in the system of global management, especially in the financial and economic sphere. This monograph discusses issues of innovative development of the BRICS in the global space. The monograph The monograph may be of interest to a wide range of experts, including researchers of the problem, university professors, graduate students and professionals.
The article derives from the results of ethnographic research conducted by the author in 2003- 2010 and draws on fi eldwork data and focused biographical interviews (2007-2010) with technical specialists working in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Minsk, and Rostov-on-Don. The goal of the article is to take the area known as data recovery for a case study and illustrate the active part that user communities play in maintaining computerized technologies, developing innovations, and shaping technological service markets.
Venture capital (VC) provides financial and managerial support for new innovative ideas at the initial stages of commercialization. It has helped to find the market for many radical innovations of 20th century, including personal computer, Internet and genetic engineering.
As a part of market economy venture business was not stable from the very beginning. The periods of rapid growth alternated with deep recessions. However each time VC revived anew as the Phoenix due to its very important function in modern knowledge-based economy.
This report presents an analysis of statistical data that prove the existence of several cycles in VC dynamics in the USA and the Great Britain. The main factors of these cycles formation are discussed. The author proposes two possible scenarios of development of VC market for the first 30 years of the new 21st century. A hypothesis is put forward about the relation between VC cycle's amplitude and a phase of Kondratieff's cycle.
Proceedings of TISLID'10
The modern concept of modernizing Russia somehow reproduce the history of the theory of innovation. The theory of innovation in its development has gone through a least 3 stages. In the first phase (1910 - first half of the 40s) to the forefront issues of understanding the nature of innovation and their role in the development of society over time (long, medium and short periods), the relationship of innovation and long cycles conditions. This period is associated with the names of J.A.Schumpeter, M.I.Tugan-Baranovsky and N.D. Kondratieff. The second stage in the development of innovation theory (second half 1940 - first half of the 1970s) is characterized by the increased role of macroeconomic analysis, in turn, he has at least two substages: the first of which was dominated by the ideas of neo-Keynesians, on the second-neoclassical. The third stage of development of the theory of innovation began in the mid-1970s and proldolzhaetsya to the present. It is characterized by an offensive alternative approach to macroeconomic theory. With a certain degree of conditionality is also possible to distinguish two substages. The first (second half of the 1970s - early 1990s) is characterized by the emergence of new ideas drawn from evolutionary theory, institutionalism (the theory of the firm) and management (innovation management). In the second substage (mid 90s) innovations studied by the methods of systems analysis. The authors are increasingly focused on issues of comparative studies: a comparative analysis of innovation policy in different countries, study the ways and means of forming an effective innovation systems. In the report it is critically considered not only the official point of view, but also M. Porter, K. Ketels work “Competitiveness at the Crossroads: Choosing the Future Direction of the Russian Economy”. Also «The forecast of innovative, technological and structural dynamics of Russian economy till 2030» and RAND Corporation report “The Global Technology Revolution 2020: Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications” are analyzed. In this paper institutional preconditions and possibilities of application of the concept of social market economy in the 21st century Russia were analyzed. Basic elements of social market economy are personal liberty, social justice, and economic efficiency.
After the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011, explosive global growth was observed for the majority of indicators of sociopolitical destabilization in all parts of the World System. In order to identify the structure of this destabilization wave, we apply a series of statistical techniques such as trend analysis and t-tests to study the degrees of intensification of various instability indicators (as recorded by the Cross-National Time Series database). We reveal explosive global growth in anti-government demonstrations, riots, general strikes, terrorist attacks/guerrilla warfare and purges, as well as in the global integral index of sociopolitical destabilization. On the other hand, no statistically significant growth has been detected for assassinations and major government crises, whereas for such an important indicator of global sociopolitical destabilization, as the global number of coups and coup attempts, we find a statistically significant decrease.