Global trends and forecasts of the 21st century

World Futures. 2021. Vol. 77. No. 5. P. 335–370.

Grinin L. E., Grinin A., Korotayev A.

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to become one of

the turning points in the transformation of the

world order, as well as many political, social and

other relations in the World System. Undoubtedly,

we live in a fast-changing world, when it is imperative

to look beyond the horizon of current events in

order to understand what tomorrow may bring. In

the present article some forecasts of technological,

political, as well as social and economic development

of the world are presented in a systematic

manner. The authors present short-term

(10–15 years), medium-term (20–50 years) and longterm

(50–100 years) forecasts (with alternative scenarios)

based on the theories of long cycles and

respective technological paradigms, as well as on

the theories of global aging, production principles,

production revolutions, Great Divergence and Great

Convergence. It is also important for the topic of

the article to show that measures taken against the

COVID-19 can significantly accelerate the development

of social self-regulating systems, which will

become one of the important parts of the

Cybernetic revolution.

Keywords: Kondratieff waves, Cybernetic Revolution, world order, forecasts, global aging, technological paradigms