Материалы X международной научно-практической конференции "Экономическое прогнозирование: модели и методы"
The collection of materials of the International Conference
Venture capital (VC) provides financial and managerial support for new innovative ideas at the initial stages of commercialization. It has helped to find the market for many radical innovations of 20th century, including personal computer, Internet and genetic engineering.
As a part of market economy venture business was not stable from the very beginning. The periods of rapid growth alternated with deep recessions. However each time VC revived anew as the Phoenix due to its very important function in modern knowledge-based economy.
This report presents an analysis of statistical data that prove the existence of several cycles in VC dynamics in the USA and the Great Britain. The main factors of these cycles formation are discussed. The author proposes two possible scenarios of development of VC market for the first 30 years of the new 21st century. A hypothesis is put forward about the relation between VC cycle's amplitude and a phase of Kondratieff's cycle.
The application of the evolutionary approach to the history of nature and society has remained one of the most effective ways to conceptualize and integrate our growing knowledge of the Universe, life, society and human thought. The present volume demonstrates this in a rather convincing way. This is the third issue of the Almanac series titled ‘Evolution’. The first volume came out with the sub-heading ‘Cosmic, Biological, and Social’, the second was entitled ‘Evolution: A Big History Perspective’. The present volume is subtitled Development within Big History, Evolutionary and World-System Paradigms. In addition to the straightforward evolutionary approach, it also reflects such adjacent approaches as Big History, the world-system analysis, as well as globalization paradigm and long wave theory. The volume includes a number of the exciting works in these fields.
The Almanac consists of five sections. The first section (Globalization as an Evolutionary Process: Yesterday and Today) contains articles demonstrating that the Evolutionary studies is capable of creating a common platform for the world-system approach, globalization studies, and the economic long-wave theory. The articles of the second section (Society, Energy, and Future) discuss the role of energy in the universal evolution, human history and the future of humankind. The third section (Aspects of Social Development) touches upon four aspects of social evolution – technological, environmental, cultural, and political. The fourth section (The Driving Forces and Patterns of Evolution) deals with various phases of megaevolution. There is also a final section which is devoted to discussions of contemporary evolutionism.
This Almanac will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us!
The modern concept of modernizing Russia somehow reproduce the history of the theory of innovation. The theory of innovation in its development has gone through a least 3 stages. In the first phase (1910 - first half of the 40s) to the forefront issues of understanding the nature of innovation and their role in the development of society over time (long, medium and short periods), the relationship of innovation and long cycles conditions. This period is associated with the names of J.A.Schumpeter, M.I.Tugan-Baranovsky and N.D. Kondratieff. The second stage in the development of innovation theory (second half 1940 - first half of the 1970s) is characterized by the increased role of macroeconomic analysis, in turn, he has at least two substages: the first of which was dominated by the ideas of neo-Keynesians, on the second-neoclassical. The third stage of development of the theory of innovation began in the mid-1970s and proldolzhaetsya to the present. It is characterized by an offensive alternative approach to macroeconomic theory. With a certain degree of conditionality is also possible to distinguish two substages. The first (second half of the 1970s - early 1990s) is characterized by the emergence of new ideas drawn from evolutionary theory, institutionalism (the theory of the firm) and management (innovation management). In the second substage (mid 90s) innovations studied by the methods of systems analysis. The authors are increasingly focused on issues of comparative studies: a comparative analysis of innovation policy in different countries, study the ways and means of forming an effective innovation systems. In the report it is critically considered not only the official point of view, but also M. Porter, K. Ketels work “Competitiveness at the Crossroads: Choosing the Future Direction of the Russian Economy”. Also «The forecast of innovative, technological and structural dynamics of Russian economy till 2030» and RAND Corporation report “The Global Technology Revolution 2020: Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications” are analyzed. In this paper institutional preconditions and possibilities of application of the concept of social market economy in the 21st century Russia were analyzed. Basic elements of social market economy are personal liberty, social justice, and economic efficiency.
Article considers problems of an assessment of efficiency of company’s activity on the basis of complex indicators of production results and resources. Tools of complex-valued economy – the new scientific direction having the theory of functions of complex variables as the basis – are used to modeling of economic dependences. The properties of exponential production function of complex variables with the real exponent are studied in the work. The function describes the interrelation between complex variable profit and costs of production and a complex labor and capital factor. Elasticity coefficients of complex-valued production function are investigated.
Practical application of the model for forecasting the efficiency of industrial production is considered on the example of " Erdenet Enterprise" (Mongolia). Construction of Kobb-Douglas production function for the analysis of activity of this enterprise was impossible. However the analysis of economic indicators of the enterprise by means of complex-valued production function yielded positive results. Calculation of elasticity coefficients for the function modeling activity of the enterprise, and also their interpretation are given in the article. The conclusion is made about the need of considering such problems as work organization by the company’s management for the purpose of increasing the production efficiency of the enterprise.
We have recently introduced an irregularity index λ for daily sunspot numbers ISSN, derived from the well-known Lyapunov exponent, that attempts to reflect irregularities in the chaotic process of solar activity. Like the Lyapunov exponent, the irregularity index is computed from the data for different embedding dimensions m (2-32). When m = 2, λ maxima match ISSN maxima of the Schwabe cycle, whereas when m = 3, λ maxima occur at ISSN minima. The patterns of λ as a function of time remain similar from m = 4 to 16: the dynamics of λ change between 1915 and 1935, separating two regimes, one from 1850 to 1915 and the other from 1935 to 2005, in which λ retains a similar structure. A sharp peak occurs at the time of the ISSN minimum between cycles 23 and 24, possibly a precursor of unusual cycle 24 and maybe a new regime change. λ is significantly smaller during the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles. Differences in values of the irregularity index observed for different cycles reflect differences in correlations in sunspot series at a scale much less than the 4-yr sliding window used in computing them; the lifetime of sunspots provides a source of correlation at that time scale. The burst of short-term irregularity evidenced by the strong l-peak at the minimum of cycle 23-24 would reflect a decrease in correlation at the time scale of several days rather than a change in the shape of the cycle.
Since the early 1990s, speaker adaptation have become one of the intensive areas in speech recognition. State-of-the-art batch-mode adaptation algorithms assume that speech of particular speaker contains enough information about the user's voice. In this article we propose to allow the user to manually verify if the adaptation is useful. Our procedure requires the speaker to pronounce syllables containing each vowel of particular language. The algorithm contains two steps looping through all syllables. At first, LPC analysis is performed for extracted vowel and the LPC coefficients are used to synthesize the new sound (with a fixed pitch period) and play it. If this synthesized sound is not perceived by the user as an original one then the syllable should be recorded again. At the second stage, speaker is asked to produce another syllable with the same vowel to automatically verify the stability of pronunciation. If two signals are closed (in terms of the Itakura-Saito divergence) then the sounds are marked as "good" for adaptation. Otherwise both steps are repeated. In the experiment we examine a problem of vowel recognition for Russian language in our voice control system which fuses two classifiers: the CMU Sphinx with speaker-independent acoustic model and Euclidean comparison of MFCC features of model vowel and input signal frames. Our results support the statement that the proposed approach provides better accuracy and reliability in comparison with traditional MAP/MLLR techniques implemented in the CMU Sphinx.
The general region socio-economical developement estimation approach is based on the agregation of diffeerent indices into one number. This approach leads to the loss of information, because highly economically developed regions are mixed with the poorly developed regions which live only due to subsidies. The new complex-valued index is proposed in the article. The usage of the index allows to evaluate the regions' developement from two separated sides: the social developement and economical developement. The simple way of such a complex-valued indices is proposed in the article.