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Матеріали V Міжнародної науково-практичної конференції "Сучаснi проблеми моделювания соцiально-економiчних систем"
Х. :
ФОП Александрова К.М., ВД "IНЖЕК", 2013.
Ustyuzhanin V., / Series Econometrics "arxiv". 2026.
This paper proposes Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences (CBWSDID), a design-based extension of weighted stacked DID for settings in which untreated trends may be conditionally rather than unconditionally parallel. The estimator separates within-subexperiment design adjustment from across-subexperiment aggregation: matching or weighting improves treated-control comparability within each stacked subexperiment, while the corrective stacked weights of Wing et ...
Added: April 3, 2026
Vorchik A., / Social Science Research Network. Серия SSRN Working Paper Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
This article is devoted to the phenomenon of intrinsic motivation, to understand which two models are proposed. We study how positive/negative intrinsic motivation to work (experienced utility) affects worker's individual labour supply (model I) and the amount of effort they exert (model II). In model I, we use intrinsic motivation to explain the positive/negative slope ...
Added: March 15, 2026
Vorchik A., Мамышев М. А., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2025.
In this paper, we develop a formal mathematical model aimed to explain the Dunning-Kruger effect that beginners systematically overestimate their own competence in various fields of knowledge and activity. We argue that the Dunning-Kruger effect arises from the emotional nature of confidence combined with unknown unknowns that it simply can not take into account due ...
Added: February 11, 2026
Musaev A. U., Vorchik A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This paper attempts to model the evolutionary theory of modernization and democratization. The model reflects the key provisions of R. Inglehart and C. Welzel's theory and provides a microfoundation for the adaptation of subjective values to the objective importances of the survival factors and the structure of the labour markets from the perspective of evolutionary ...
Added: February 10, 2026
Antsygina A., Teteryatnikova M., Tremewan J. C. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2025.
Many competitive environments allow for a third party to be indirectly involved by supporting one or both sides in the conflict. Such support can come from trade partners, colleagues, or allies, who can in turn benefit from a supported party's success. We use theory and an experiment to investigate how support relationships develop endogenously in ...
Added: January 31, 2026
Akhmedova A., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
The study explores a psychological phenomenon of inaction inertia-avoiding action after missing a more favourable opportunity. Unlike action inertia (e.g.,sunk costs effect), inaction inertia has been less studied, particularly in economic contexts. Considering the reference dependent nature of the phenomenon, I build on the work of Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) to examine how past experiences ...
Added: January 23, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Ozhegova A., Зорина К. С., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 6108727". 2026.
Simplified tax regimes with explicit eligibility thresholds are a common tool which reduces tax burden but distorts firms’ behavior, creating local bunching just below the threshold. However, we show that when firms have access to business splitting their responses extend far beyond the local margin. Our model demonstrates that splitting reduces local bunching but amplifies ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Кумачева С. Ш., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5312100". 2025.
In recent years, an emerging body of empirical research has shown that tax audits, in addition to recovering unpaid taxes (direct effect), increase future tax compliance (indirect or dynamic effect). This literature also suggests that updating expectations induced by audit experience plays an important role in explaining this indirect effect. However, exactly how taxpayers form ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5277500". 2025.
While the emerging empirical literature shows that collateral tax sanctions (CTSs) - such as driver’s license suspensions or passport denials - appear to be effective instruments to enforce tax debt collection, there are still few theoretical arguments to explain why. In this paper, I model enforcement of tax debt collection and provide a new rationale for why it could ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Dobrynskaya V. V., Tomtosov A., Речмедина С., / NRU HSE. Series WP BRP 60/FE/2017 "SERIES: FINANCIAL ECONOMICS". 2025.
We study the application of factor investing in the market for real estate (REITs). The analysis of traditional factor strategies, such as momentum, value, size and profitability, reveals their unstable and atypical behavior in comparison to the equity market, however, there is a strong momentum effect in the factor strategies. We propose a new dynamic ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Besstremyannaya G., Bakshuk M., / ЦЭМИ РАН. Серия 48 заседание "Сборник трудов Шаталинской школы-семинара". 2026.
В данной статье рассматривается реакция российских предприятий обрабатывающей промышленности на ужесточение экономических санкций с акцентом на период после 2022 года. Хотя санкции в целом негативно сказываются на экономическом росте и эффективности деятельности компаний, есть некоторые свидетельства того, что они также могут подталкивать компании к инновациям, а негативный эффект преодолевается при помощи адаптации компании. Исследование заполняет ...
Added: December 31, 2025
Besstremyannaya G., Новикова В., / ЦЭМИ РАН. Серия 48 заседание "Сборник трудов Шаталинской школы-семинара". 2026.
Защита прав интеллектуальной собственности является движущей
силой для формирования стимулов инновационной активности
предприятий. Законодательное закрепление правил пользования
результатами интеллектуальной деятельности и обеспечение их соблюдения
позволяет поддерживать баланс интересов создателей и пользователей
интеллектуальной
собственности.
Целью
проанализировать недостаточно изученную для регионов России связь
между экономическим ростом и защитой прав интеллектуальной
собственности с использованием двухшаговой регрессии. Результаты
моделирования оказались неоднозначными, однако, было доказано наличие
значимой связи между защитой прав интеллектуальной ...
Added: December 31, 2025
Meissner D., Salati Marcondes de Moraes G. H., Brandão Fischer B. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2025. No. WP BRP /STI/2025.
Innovation has long been at the center of debates in economics, management, and organizational studies. However, innovation is never free of uncertainty and risk. Every act of innovation implies a departure from established paths and a willingness to embrace the unknown. From the beginning it's never clear if there is an audience which appreciates the ...
Added: November 28, 2025
Shchiptsova A., Obersteiner M., / Series General Economics "arxiv.org". 2025.
The addition of phosphorus, in the form of mineral fertilizer, becomes necessary in most agricultural soils in order to achieve consistent high yield levels of intensive farming and maintain soil fertility. Recent consolidation of phosphate fertilizer industry has transformed fragmented trade into a single integrated global network, where a small group of large-scale companies dominates ...
Added: November 21, 2025
Heliyon 2023 Vol. 9 Article e12989
This study empirically analyzes time series momentum (TSM) in the European equity market
between 2000 & 2020. The study produces additional evidence on TSM where a significant and
persistent market price anomaly enables investors to earn abnormal returns. To achieve this goal
the present study implements a pooled autoregressive model to test the predictability power of
European equity indices ...
Added: September 6, 2023
Grinin L. E., Grinin A., Korotayev A., World Futures 2021 Vol. 77 No. 5 P. 335–370
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to become one of
the turning points in the transformation of the
world order, as well as many political, social and
other relations in the World System. Undoubtedly,
we live in a fast-changing world, when it is imperative
to look beyond the horizon of current events in
order to understand what tomorrow may bring. In
the present ...
Added: November 8, 2021
Korotayev A., Bilyuga S., Shishkina A., Journal of Globalization Studies 2020 Vol. 11 No. 1 P. 33–63
It is shown that the Kondratieff wave dynamics in the growth rates of global GDP is generated now by the developing countries, while in the previous era the Kon- dratieff dynamics was generated primarily by the most economically developed countries of the First World. We re-visit the question of the presence of the Kon- dratieff ...
Added: September 11, 2020
Savchenko A., Savchenko V., Radioelectronics and Communications Systems 2019 Vol. 62 No. 5 P. 223–231
It is researched a wide class of parametric estimations of power spectral density based on principle of entropy maximum and autoregression observation model. At that there is distinguished the key parameter which is used model order. It is considered a problem of a priori uncertainty when true value of order is a priori unknown. It ...
Added: August 16, 2019
Korotayev A., Akaev A., Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of the Anthropological and Related Sciences 2017 Vol. 10(1) P. 1–21
The paper analyzes the current state of the world economy and offers a short-term forecast of its development. Our analysis of log-periodic oscillations in the DJIA dynamics suggests that in the second half of 2017 the United States and other more developed countries could experience a new recession, due to the third phase of the ...
Added: October 12, 2017
М.: Горная книга, 2017.
Разработаны модель управления предприятием и последующая реализация программного обеспечения, позволяющего смоделировать варианты развития предприятия в долгосрочном периоде, комплекс программ на MATLAB, реализующих метод авторегрессии, спектрального и корреляционного анализа, программа на языке программирования Python для оценки платежеспособности заемщиков банка на основе модели с использованием нейронных сетей, исследованы характеристики стохастического временного ряда, предложены программы реализации алгоритмов масштабирования ...
Added: August 21, 2017
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Grinin A., Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2017 Vol. 115 P. 52–68
In the present article we analyze the relationships between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and offer forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave. We use for our analysis the basic ideas of long cycles' theory and related theories (theories of the leading sector, technological styles etc.) as well as the ideas of ...
Added: November 30, 2016
Esaulov D., Moscow University Mathematics Bulletin 2012 Vol. 67 No. 2 P. 79–81
The paper deals with properties of GM-estimators and GM-tests for linear hypotheses in AR(p)-processes when observations contain outliers. In particular, we obtain the marginal distribution of test statistics, which allows us to prove the robustness of these GM-tests. The scheme of data contamination by additive single outliers with the intensity O(n−1/2), where n is the data level, is ...
Added: October 19, 2016
Esaulov D., Mathematical Methods of Statistics 2013 Vol. 22 No. 4 P. 333–349
In the paper a new nonparametric generalized M-test for hypotheses about the order of linear autoregression AR(p) is constructed. We also establish robustness of this test in the model of data contamination by independent additive outliers with intensity O(n−1/2). Robustness is formulated in terms of limiting power equicontinuity. Test statistics are constructed with the help of ...
Added: October 19, 2016
Boldin M. V., Esaulov D., Moscow University Mathematics Bulletin 2014 Vol. 69 No. 1 P. 29–32
The local qualitative robustness of GM-tests against outliers in the autoregression model is studied in the paper. A local scheme of data contamination by independent outliers with the intensity O(n−1/2) is considered. The qualitative robustness in terms of power equicontinuity is obtained. The GM-tests asymptotically optimal in the maximin sense are constructed. ...
Added: October 17, 2016