Expanding foresight methodology to better understand the unknown future and identify hard-to-predict events

European Journal of Futures Research. 2024. Vol. 12. Article 21.

Veronica M. Sytnik, Proskuryakova L. N.

This study focuses on the integration of methods from different theories and research
concepts into futures studies in order to better understand the obscure future through
the identification of unpredictable and hard-to-predict rare events and factors.
Particular emphasis in this study is placed on systems theory, cybernetics, synergetics,
theory of chaos, bifurcation theory, catastrophe theory, thermodynamics, and the
theory of self-organized criticality that could elucidate the unknown and offer new
insights to futures studies. White, black and grey swans, dragon kings, wild cards, and
weak signals are rare and high-impact events commonly referred to in the risk
management literature, synergetics, and futures studies. The academic literature does
not always accurately identify commonalities and differences between them, as well as
relevant research tools. This study clarifies the categories of unknown and types of
uncertainty associated with these events, their characteristics, and the related existing
foresight methods. It is also suggested to enrich foresight methodology by adding
instruments from other disciplines.

Keywords: uncertainty, неопределенность, weak signals, Foresight Methods, Wild cards, "слабые сигналы", методы Форсайта, black swans, unknown, события-джокеры, "черные лебеди", неизвестное

Publication based on the results of: Identification of technology priorities in the time of world disorder (2024)