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Пандемия COVID-19 в регионах Большой Сибири: диагностика хода процесса, взаимодействие с типами регионального пространства, характеристика особых случаев
This study focuses on the process of the COVID-19 pandemic spread across Siberia in 2020-2021, using the case study of 15 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Its purpose has been to explain the mechanism of coronavirus penetration into Siberia and the resulting excess mortality proceeding from the distinctive features of Siberian regions' space. The novelty of our approach consists in using the most reliable monthly excess mortality statistics for characterizing the demographic impact of the pandemic, regional regulatory legal acts of antiviral nature, and the concept of spatial diffusion of innovations to characterize pandemic waves in the regions of Greater Siberia. The main findings are as follows. First, five types of Siberian regions have been singled out in terms of integral demographic damage from the pandemic in 2020-2021: Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug for the highest excess mortality; Omsk, Novosibirsk, and Tyumen Oblasts for moderately high; Tomsk Oblast, Altai and Krasnoyarsk Krais for relatively high; Irkutsk and Kemerovo Oblasts, Altai Republic, Republics of Khakassia and Buryatia, and Zabaykalsky Krai for below the national average; Republic of Tuva for extremely low excess mortality throughout the entire pandemic. Second, four types of regional spatial systems in Siberia have been identified according to the degree of vulnerability to coronavirus diffusion: most vulnerable open polycentric; highly vulnerable open centralized; moderately vulnerable closed centralized; least vulnerable closed polycentric. Third, it has been found that for the first type, crucial for pandemic spread was relocation spatial diffusion (and its particular characteristic case of rotational migration); the second type had relocation (by plane) and horizontal (within the local labor market); the third and fourth types had horizontal spatial diffusion as the most prominent factor. Conventional factors, such as industry specialization, population density, and Siberian-specific transport infrastructure, had little effect on coronavirus incidence. Much more important was the (contact-intensive) communication slice of these factors, which determined the potential and rate of pandemic spread in Siberian regions.