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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
July 8, 2026
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July 8, 2026
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Диагностическая методика «Стремление к порядку и предсказуемости»

Современная зарубежная психология. 2024. Т. 13. № 3. С. 31–40.
Ясин М. И.

The article presents the results of the development of the diagnostic methodology “Striving for order and predictability”, created on the basis of the questionnaire “Striving for cognitive closure” by A. Kruglyansky. The need for cognitive closure is a cognitive process that allows avoiding of unnecessary, contradictory and interfering information in order to integrate data easier. Substantiated consideration of two parameters - “Striving for order” and “Striving for predictability” - s into a single construct. Reduction of test dimensionality achieved by using structural equation modeling (Structural Equation Models, SEM). The sample consisted of 505 respondents, average age 29.5 years, of which 58.7% were women, 19.9% were men. For the developed structure the following indicators were obtained: χ²/df =3; CFI=0.923; TLI=0.906; SRMR = 0.0525; RMSEA=0.0677, which indicates a very good fit of the model. Cronbach's alpha for the "Striving for Order" scale = 0.822, for the "Striving for Predictability" scale = 0.733, McDonald's Alpha for all items of the two-scale questionnaire = 0.833. The retest results on a sample of 53 people is r=0.81. No gender differences were found on both scales. The presented model of the questionnaire shows very good model fit indices, internal consistency and a high degree of reliability. Further work on the construct of cognitive closure may use the results of current study.

Research target: Psychology
Language: Russian
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Keywords: психодиагностикаpsychodiagnosticscognitive closureкогнитивная закрытостьneed for cognitive closureneed for orderneed for predictabilityneed for structureстремление к когнитивный закрытостистремление к порядкустремление к предсказуемостипотребность в структуре
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