Репродуктивные намерения россиян в 2022—2023 гг.: роль субъективных факторов

Вопросы экономики. 2024. № 9. С. 138–157.

Vakulenko E., Gorskiy D., Кондратьева В. П., Трофименко И. А.

This study examines how the reproductive intentions of Russians changed during the socio-economic shocks that arose during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022-2023. The study used data from a representative survey of 7,967 respondents conducted in May 2023. We used multiple-choice models to identify the factors that influenced changes in fertility decisions. Most individuals who had planned to have children before the crisis did not change their plans (60.2%), 9.5% of respondents decided not to have children, while, on the contrary, 9.2% decided to have children earlier. The rest of the respondents postponed having children. The econometric model included both objective and subjective characteristics of respondents. Objective factors included income, housing availability, health, family status, and the presence of children. Subjective factors included emotions such as anxiety, fear, appeasement, happiness, and attitude to the political course of the country. The study found that psychological factors played a more significant role in decision-making. Anxiety and fear, as well as disagreement with the country's political course, led respondents to postpone having children for an indefinite period. Conversely, a positive emotional background and the presence of a partner encouraged respondents to have children earlier. The decision not to have children was mainly explained by physiological deadlines and attitudes to political course, while the income and emotional indicators have a more minor but significant influence. The results of model estimates are consistent with the cluster analysis of answers to the open-ended question about changes in reproductive intentions. We also discovered significant differences in decision-making for respondents before and after the age of 30, as well as for those with and without children. A series of demographic and social policy recommendations are proposed based on the results obtained.

Keywords: Россия, Russia, эмоции, emotions, материнский капитал, maternity capital, модели множественного выбора, репродуктивные намерения, reproductive intentions, Machine learning methods, модели машинного обучения, socio-economic shocks, sample survey, multiple choice models, социально-экономические шоки, выборочное обследование

Publication based on the results of: Life Choices: Factors and Mechanisms for Making Key Decisions at Different Life Stages (2024)