The Evolution of the South China Sea Since 1992: Assessing ASEAN’s Response

Southeast Asia: Actual Problems of Development. 2024. Vol. 1. No. 1(62). P. 124–132.

Gorbatko A.

The article aims to assess the effectiveness of ASEAN’s (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) policy towards the South China Sea issue against major trends of its evolution and through the prism of global and regional developments. Concerning the former, an increase of the global dimension of the issue is evident, while the latter suggest that the international milieu is increasingly competitive and unpredictable. The author argues that ASEAN has been unable to overcome its instrumental deficiencies in addressing the issue, because of which the process to the Code on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (COC) is slow, while the COC prospects are unclear. Arguably, the association is encountering the exactly same problems it had to deal with in the early 1990s, but the present international milieu makes it increasingly difficult for the association to effectively resolve them. Mostly, ASEAN focuses on the process of negotiations rather than on their substance and outcomes. As a result, limited progress in the COC elaboration with no clear prospects in sight is a new normal. Although the topic itself is sufficiently explored by Russian and foreign scholars, the novelty and the academic significance of this paper accounts for its findings that summarize factors behind the limited efficiency of ASEAN policy towards the South China Sea issue within a long time period.

Keywords: ASEAN, АСЕАН, global trends, progress, прогресс, проблема Южно-Китайского моря, multilateral dialogue, многосторонний диалог, сдерживающие факторы, Code on Conduct, Кодекс поведения, the South China Sea issue, limitations, тенденции мирового развития