Макроэкономическая модель российской экономики

Экономика и математические методы. 2016. Т. 52. № 3. С. 92–113.

Скрыпник Д. В.

The constructed macroeconomic model of Russian economy is presented. The model takes into account the key features of behavioral mechanism, economic policy mechanism, and key structural features of the economy for medium and short periods. We model the budget rule mechanism, consider interaction between the Central Bank and the budget in the context of monetary and budget reserves accumulation, including the process of gold-currency reserves’ accumulation as well as the sterilizing mechanism for state funds formation. Include two different monetary policy rules in the model: domestic credit rule and exchange rate rule. The exchange rate sub-model describes a Balassa—Samuelson effect and terms of trade effect. Our model demonstrates high prognostic power: its model prognostic quality is higher than of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the majority of macroeconomic indicators. 

Keywords: macroeconomic model, макроэкономическая модель, transmission mechanism of monetary policy, трансмиссионный механизм монетарной политики, бюджетное правило, векторная модель коррекции ошибками, Budget rule, Error correction model