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Влияние изменения ключевой процентной ставки на ипотечные ставки в регионах России
Экономика и математические методы. 2025. Т. 61. № 2. С. 75–89.
Demidova O., Shchankina A.
The article considers the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission of the Bank of Russia to the weighted average mortgage rate published on the website of the Bank of Russia and the "commercial" mortgage rate calculated by us less preferential loans. The main hypothesis tested in the article was that the reaction of mortgage rates to changes in monetary policy of the Bank of Russia varied by Russian regions and by time intervals. To test this hypothesis, we used an error correction model (ECM), estimated on monthly data for 85 Russian regions from January 2016 to August 2023. The results showed that before COVID-19 (January 2016 – February 2020), a long-term relationship of mortgage rates with MIACR and adjustment to long-term equilibrium were found in most regions (76 regions for weighted average and 61 regions for commercial rates). COVID-19 impacted the transmission of both weighted average rates and commercial rates approximately equally, in the period January 2016 – February 2022 it remained in 4 and 14 Russian regions, respectively. The SMO shock (January 2016 – August 2023) stronger influenced on the transmission of weighted average rates than commercial rates (it remained in 5 and 30 regions, respectively). The transmission to mortgage rates varied by regions: before COVID-19 in the European part of Russia, weighted average mortgage rates reacted to the change in MIACR mainly in the month when the shock occurred and in Siberia and the Far East – in the next month, which may be caused by many intermediaries.
Keywords: денежно-кредитная политикаmonetary policyнеоднородностьрегионы Россиимонетарная трансмиссияmonetary transmissioninterest rate channelпроцентный каналregions of Russiaheterogeneityмодель коррекции ошибокError correction modelmortgage ratesипотечные ставки
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