Бюджетные правила, эффективность правительства и экономический рост

Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2016. Т. 30. № 2. С. 12–32.

Скрыпник Д. В.

The paper reviews international experience of budget balance, expenditure
and debt rules implementation. Using dynamic panel data regressions with
interactive term we show that character of rules influence on economic growth rate
is determined by the government efficiency. Rules would not work in case of lowefficient
government, which is not able to adhere the rule. In case of middle-efficient
government the rule could be an obstacle for optimal budget policy, which requires
flexibility. The efficient governments adjust and readjust the rule precisely, that
doesn’t lead to restriction of economic growth. Growth effect of rules occurred only
when government achieved high efficient level. We show that impact of rules on the
Russian economy growth is negative.

Keywords: экономический рост, бюджетные правила, панельная регрессия, dynamic panel data model, эффективность правительства, Budget rule, government efficiency, Economic growth