Article
Оценка результатов школьного образования: структурный подход
The PISA 2009 data (in reading) investigated the effectiveness of one year of schooling in seven countries: Russia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, Canada, and Brazil. We used an instrumental variable, which allowed us to estimate the effect of one year of schooling through the fuzzy method of regression discontinuity. The analysis was performed both for regular and vocational education programs collectively as well as individually for regular schools. It was found that in general for Russian students enrolled in all programs, the effectiveness of one year of schooling is insignificant. In countries that practice the early separation of students into regular and vocational programs, the effectiveness of schooling is lower than in countries where all fifteen-year-olds are enrolled in regular programs. The effectiveness of one year of schooling for students enrolled in regular educational programs is significant in all countries. Students enrolled in vocational programs typically perform more poorly than those enrolled in regular programs. The strength of the relationship between the socioeconomic status of the student’s family and the effectiveness of schooling are highly dependent on the education system and vary from country to country. For Russia, as well as for some other countries, the effectiveness of schooling does not depend on socioeconomic status. The significance of these results for the evaluation of the effectiveness of schooling, and in particular for the fair evaluation of national achievement in countries that offer different educational trajectories, is discussed.
The paper discusses in detail the scale of translation of primary points scored by school graduates in the unified state exam in mathematics, used from 2013 to the present time. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of these scales, a conclusion is made about the annual increase in the "average" 100-point result, as well as the presence of a significant increase in the final grade compared with the linear scale. Additionally, the authors describe the effect of reducing the value of primary points as they approach the maximum.
Institutions affect investment decisions, including investments in human capital. Hence institutions are relevant for the allocation of talent. Good market-supporting institutions attract talent to productive value-creating activities, whereas poor ones raise the appeal of rent-seeking. We propose a theoretical model that predicts that more talented individuals are particularly sensitive in their career choices to the quality of institutions, and test these predictions on a sample of around 95 countries of the world. We find a strong positive association between the quality of institutions and graduation of college and university students in science, and an even stronger negative correlation with graduation in law. Our findings are robust to various specifications of empirical models, including smaller samples of former colonies and transition countries. The quality of human capital makes the distinction between educational choices under strong and weak institutions particularly sharp. We show that the allocation of talent is an important link between institutions and growth.