In our research, we examine what macroeconomic factors determine and influence the credit cycle. In addition, our study contains four sections with theoretical and empirical parts, in which we describe how to measure credit cycles for developed and developing countries, and then introduce an important measure of the credit gap. Our results show a comparative analysis of credit cycles between different countries with different economic growth, and we have created an econometric model, which shows us the impact of macroeconomic factors according to the credit cycles for developing and developed economies.
The paper is concerned with questions of civic values and civic identity as they are experienced by Russian people in the context of global economic crisis 2008-2010. Empirical findings from Russian Public Opinion Research Center, Levada-Center, Edelman Trust Barometer surveys are used to outline how tensions, distrust and civic irresponsibility expressed by respondents in the context of financial instability may amplify understandings of “citizenship” and “civic identity”. Several trends characterizing the impact of economic crisis on civic identity in Russian society are discussed: the transformation of the common sense of “we-ness” in case of individualism’s growth and increasing reduction of trust to economic and law institutions; the problem of new political values formation; the specifics of citizens’ emigration intentions; the “status level” of citizenship; the effect of mental inertia.
The paper analyzes the main trends of consumer markets in the post-crisis period. Particular attention is paid to the manifestation of global trends in Russia. The increasing value systems and lifestyle fragmentation leads to changes in even such fundamental elements of the human society as gender differentiation and models of family life. The growth of popularity of the economical consumption model is accompanied by a drop in loyalty to brands, as well as by increasing popularity of downshifting and minimalism. In these circumstances, those productsthat are able to take immediately into account several consumption trends and offer complete solutions have the best commercial prospects.
This paper examines what influences Russian households‟ decisions to save and borrow. We use the 2008 data from the 17th round of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE). Our results show that the determinants of saving and borrowing are not only those suggested by economic theory but also include psychological and sociological considerations: smarter respondents, who are satisfied with their lives and inclined to help other people, are more likely to save. Those who enjoy stable or improving financial conditions and/or are satisfied with them are more likely to save and less likely to borrow. Financial literacy, a factor cited by institutional theory as positive for both saving and borrowing from banks, lost its significance at the onset of the financial crisis. Household income, suggested by economic theory as a basis for choosing a financial strategy, was found to have much less influence on savings and to have a positive influence on borrowing, confirming the rationing theory rather than intertemporal choice theory. Surprisingly, the fear of job loss does not make people save more, contrary to the precautionary motive.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.