Энергетическая зависимость Украины: проблема для новой администрации страны
High energy resource dependence of Ukraine's economy on gas imported from Russia is caused above all by the fact that while the Ukrainian industry is largely dependent on the Russian fuel there are no alternatives for Ukraine to diversify its import in the medium term. Key Ukrainian industries (the ore-metallurgical complex and the chemical industry) are too much dependent on the Russian gas.
In 2004 the "Orange Revolution" put Ukraine back on Europe's mental map and the new government made entry into the EU a priority. But imperial-era preconceptions still influence foreign attitudes towards Ukraine and in Ukraine political independence from Russia is not matched by economic, cultural and psychological independence. Ukraine's pro-EU leaders not only face entrenched political rivals who maintain the institutional infrastructure of Russian language-use and promote pro-Russian nostalgia for the soviet past, they must deal with foreign business people whose activities keep Ukraine in the Russian-language communications sphere and politicians afraid of "fragmenting Russia". This book surveys the Ukrainian-EU relationship in light of the legacies of Russian rule. Its authors review and examine not only existing policies but also the long-term underlying interrelationships between national identities, loyalties, political/cultural orientations and political trends.
This article deals with the state of cooperation between Russia and Ukraine in the sphere of environmental protection and economic development from the international legal aspect. The necessity of development and improvement of international legal regulation in the mentioned above sphere is in the focus of the author’s argumentation
The protracted nature of the current global financial crisis has led to reduced forecasts of economic and energy consumption growth accompanied by an obvious accelerated increase in the share taken by developing countries. • In the long term, fossil fuels will remain dominant, against the background of a slower growth in the share of non-hydrocarbon energy resources than was estimated in the previous Outlook. The ‘shale breakthrough’ has postponed for two or three decades the threat of running out of economically viable oil and gas reserves – which had seemed so close just five to seven years ago – and has secured the predominantly hydrocarbon character of the world’s energy sector. The share of oil and gas in world primary energy consumption will remain practically unchanged (53.6 per cent in 2010 and 51.4 per cent by 2040). • The study of oil and gas price dynamics in different scenarios did not show fundamental cause for alarmist forecasts predicting either too high, or extremely low, prices within the period under review. In all cases – ranging from future success to possible failure of shale technologies – oil prices in 2040 will not move out of the range $100–130/bbl. Gas prices will be closely correlated with oil prices, but also strongly differentiated by region (which does not exclude large short-term fluctuations in prices under the influence of political and speculative factors). • Despite the integration of oil and gas markets, as international trade in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) expands, the trend towards regionalization of prices, resulting in considerable differences in price levels, will gain momentum. • Natural gas will account for the most substantial increase in absolute volumes of consumption, and the share taken by gas in primary energy consumption will increase more than that of any other fuel. The next 30 years could, quite reasonably, be considered as ‘the era of gas’. But Russia runs the risk of missing the resulting opportunities. • The consequences of the expected transformation of world energy and, especially, hydrocarbon markets will not significantly change the fuel markets themselves, but the positions of the leading market participants will clearly be rebalanced, while some global players will be able to gain influence. The results of our research clearly show that Russia will be more susceptible to adverse changes in market conditions during the forecast period. In the Baseline Scenario, Russian oil and gas exports to foreign markets appear to be significantly lower than the official national projections. • High costs and the current taxation system both limit the competitiveness of Russian energy resources in global markets. The Russian fuel and energy complex could face severe restrictions on external demand for energy resources at prices acceptable to Russia, resulting in additional risks for Russia’s energy sector and economy. This research provides preliminary estimates of the consequences of this impact on the country’s economic growth (one percentage point slowdown per year) and possible measures to compensate for it.
The article contains a one-year forecast for developing of Russian cross-border cooperation policy and practice. The author shares her expectations about the inter-regional relations in Russian-European and Russian-Post-Soviet directions. Such an important idea as a definition of the fundamental reason for current speed and quality of cross-border cooperation in Russia is advanced for the discussion of scientific community.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.