Ex-post анализ международной торговли: сравнение методологических подходов

Вопросы теоретической экономики. 2021. № 4. С. 7–23.

Galeev A., Жохов М. М.

The article compares methodological approaches to the ex-post analysis of the economic policy in the development of international trade using the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as an example. Firstly, we consider the use of indices for the assessment of the organization's performance. The article presents the data of the indices used directly by APEC when summing up the work results, as well as the indices recommended by the WTO, UNCTAD, and the World Bank. Secondly, we consider the methodology of ex-post analysis using econometric models, namely the gravity model. The results of assessing the impact of APEC on the volume of imports, trade transaction costs, and the effectiveness of policies aimed at facilitating trade are presented. Based on the results of a comparative analysis of methodological approaches, we conclude that the exclusive use of indices in ex-post analysis cannot fully characterize the results of economic policy, since it is impossible to single out the effect of specific measures. In particular, the values ​​of the indices do not reflect the contribution of APEC to the development of international trade in the region. It is also necessary to use an econometric estimation to obtain a reliable assessment of economic policy — the application of the gravity model can complement the index analysis and quantify the results of the pursued policy. Thus, the authors recommend the use of econometric estimation in the development of economic policy and the analysis of its results in international trade.

Keywords: международная торговля, international trade, APEC, АТЭС