Assessment of the State of Economic Security in Russia Using the Example of the Unemployment Rate Indicator:Fractal Analysis Method
The article proposes methodological approaches to the verification of indicators of the state of thecountry’s economic security using the method of fractal analysis. Fractal analysis technologies make it pos-sible to determine the nature and dynamics of changes in the indicator, to verify its values (indicative or crit-ical), and also to reveal the rate at which these states are reached on the time horizon of statistical observa-tions. The unemployment rate indicator is selected as an example.
The coronavirus pandemic has acted as a catalyst for discussions on the choice of economic policies for recovery from the crisis. This research focuses on one of the aspects of this problem, aiming to analyse interregional interactions, the activation of which can become a driver of growth. Based on the idea of ‘double circulation’ from the China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, we demonstrate that Russia also has the ability to shift the focus of economic policy towards expanding the domestic market and developing ties between regions. The paper draws parallels between the early 1920s and 2020s. It is noted that the need to overcome economic depression was determined by justifying close cooperation of individual regions in Russia. The article describes the use of interregional interactions as a tool for spatial development based on the existing federal strategic plans. The study demonstrates that that the task of strengthening interregional interactions is only briefly touched upon in the plans...
By 2018, there are more than 70 million people suffering from various forms of one of the most common neurological diseases – epilepsy. In fact, epipelsy is a central nervous system (neurological) disorder, manifesting itself in anomalous brain activity. Nowadays, most of the patients do not have the ability to foresee the onset of an attack in advance, which is due to the complex symptoms that are difficult to predict. One of the best way to analyze such kind of behaviour is electroencephalography (EEG). This research paper considers the problem of EEG epileptic seizures prediction from the point of the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems. According to the study, signals of cerebral cortex neural networks corresponds to multifractal nature which gives an opportunity to analyze changes between states in phase space during the abnormal electrical activity. Therefore, monitoring the preictal stage and early indication of an attack may help patients to avoid problems related to sudden seizures. This research will provide valuable information regarding the mechanism of epilepsy onset and introduce a prediction model using machine learning algorithm based on fractal analysis of RQA.
This paper contains the analysis of problems that complicate the effective strategic development of the forest complex of the Russian Federation, including deviations in forest management of the Russian Federation from the best world practices. Based on the data from a comparative analysis of Russian and international strategic documents, it has been found that, unlike the international, the Russian strategic planning agenda in the industry is more short-term in nature and mainly focuses on targeted tools to overcome current, forest problems often of a private nature. This conclusion has been made on the basis of the analysis of the Strategy for the development of the Russian forest complex till 2020 and the Strategy for the development of the Russian forest complex till 2030. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the management situation in Based on a comprehensive analysis of the management situation in the industry, the authors conclude that one of the major problems of the forest complex as an object of strategic planning is the lack of a request for long-term sustainable development, the adaptive transformation adoption based on the current response, leading to a narrowed reproduction of production and technological potential. As a solution to this problem, the authors propose the introduction of a system of monitoring and forecasting the scientific and technological development of the industry in the state administration of forestry. At the same time, the authors are of the opinion that the use of big data analysis in the framework of monitoring and forecasting will improve the quality of strategic planning. The results presented in this paper are important for forecasting the parameters of the scientific and technological development of the forest complex at the global and national levels and can be used as a practical tool for substantiating comprehensive planning strategies in the forest complex in the long run.
To determine the surface quality of the machine parts, traditional methods based on the direct measurements of the microcracks are used. The results do not allow assessing the correlation of the surface layer quality and the given values. The approach developed recently measures the parameters of the surface layer using fractal analysis and solves this problem. To define the fractal dimension of the surface layer the modern digital stationary surface analyzers were used. As a result, it is possible to save the profile as a text file. This file is a time series consisting of the roughness heights of the surface elements. Having such a two-dimensional profile diagram, it is possible to calculate the fractal dimension in a computer program. This program will calculate the uploaded time series. Nowadays mathematicians use Fractan for time series fractal analysis. The results of the precision analysis of the data showed that Fractan has low precision in estimations of the time series fractal parameters. So Fractan cannot be used for the fractal analysis of the machine parts surface layer. The simultaneous use of the stationary surface analyzer and a computer program to estimate the Hurst exponent in order to define fractal characteristics of the material surface layer is proposed. Fractal analysis using the computer program Fractan shows low accuracy. A computer program written in VBA to calculate fractals of the time series is developed. The algorithms used in the program estimate the Hurst exponent with high accuracy.