Особенности формирования технологических ожиданий в России: анализ результатов конъюнктурных обследований цифровой трансформации предприятий обрабатывающей промышленности
The purpose of the article is to analyze the technological expectations of managers of Russian enterprises from the manufacturing industry in the face of changes in the external economic environment. Firstly, the authors have calculated specially developed “index of fulfillment” of technological expectations, reflecting the ratio of the expectations formed in the previous period for the introduction of technologies with an increase in the real level of implementation. Secondly, using regression analysis, authors investigated the mechanisms of formation of technological expectations of managers in various conditions: before crisis 2018, pre-crisis 2019, and crisis 2020. The influence of three mechanisms in the intertemporal context was tested: the “inertial” one, which presupposes the preservation of the expectations formed in the past in the current period; “adaptive”, which involves adjusting expectations in accordance with the current dynamics of technology implementation; “predictive”, which implies the connection of expectations with the future level of implementation.
The basis for empirical calculations was the data of annual business tendency surveys of digital activity of heads of Russian manufacturing enterprises for 2018-2020. The aggregate sample of surveyed enterprises for 3 years included more than 3000 enterprises from 23 manufacturing industries. The patterns of implementation of 19 technologies were studied, most of which are combined in the literature in the framework of the concept of "Industry 4.0".
The results obtained indicate that technological expectations are characterized by great heterogeneity in terms of feasibility. Regression analysis showed that all of the three identified mechanisms can play a role, but their influence is not always significant.
The conclusions from the results of this study indicate that Russia is characterized by the initial and transitional nature of digital transformation in the manufacturing industry with technological development through “breakthroughs”, rather than a steady process of modernization. The main conclusion of the work is that external uncertainty is of great importance in the evolution of technological expectations, destroying their continuity in relation to previous plans, as well as negatively affecting the predictive capabilities of managers' assessments.