Importance The global financial crisis disturbed the former trends of the global financial system, without leaving any opportunity for their recovery. The new system configuration is not evident yet, however some components of its post-crisis order are already identifiable. The article identifies and analyzes such components that allow outlining the financial system of the future. Objectives The research reveals the main post-crisis trends in the development of the global financial system, traces these trends in key structural components, i.e. markets, tools, infrastructure, regulatory practices, and determines areas for their further development. Methods The research is based on methods of comparative, empirical and statistical analyses. Results The crisis increased the uncertainty in each component of the global financial system due to internal and external causes, with new areas of activities, operations, and risks emerging. This engenders an array of challenges for financial regulators, which have to find solutions and tackle the loss of confidence. Conclusions and Relevance Having analyzed the key factors and components of the post-crisis development of the global financial system, we conclude on the existing global challenges, which shape not only the global financial system, but also the Russian one. The article may appear interesting for researchers who analyze and forecast the development of global financial markets, and issues of their regulation (mega-regulation).
The article analyzes the behavior of the credit cycle in the period after the global financial crisis, as well as the consequences of changes in the «inter-crisis» period of 2010–2019 for the future credit cycle after new economic recession in 2020 caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The «credit crunch» phase, defined as a period of reduced credit activity under the low and declining interest rates, has been prolonged in many countries since the global financial crisis. The reason for this were both some mistakes in monetary policy and the tightening of financial regulation, primarily in the banking sector. Ultimately, this led to slower economic growth, reduced efficiency of the banking channel of monetary policy and the transition of nonfinancial companies to alternative funding sources and the transfer of financial risks to the nonbanking financial sector (primarily the shadow banking sector). According to the authors, the new world recession, caused by COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to further changes in the model of the credit cycle – funding opportunities at low interest rates be even more restricted (excluding public financing programs) and the Central Bank will act as «lender of primary resort» and the main risk collector. The level of interest rates will affect service of increasing public debts. In fact, under the ultra-low interest rates, credit crunch may occur in the debt market (except for companies with high credit rating), and financial risks will accumulate even more in the shadow banking sector. The results of the analysis allow us to form a «frame» for further research of the credit cycle after a current economic recession.