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Peaks, Slopes, Canyons and Plateaus: Identifying Technology Trends Throughout the Life Cycle
Efimenko I., Khoroshevsky V. F.
A novel domain-independent approach to technology trend monitoring is presented in the paper. It is based on the ontology of a technology trend, hype cycles methodology, and semantic indicators which provide evidence of a maturity level of a technology. This approach forms the basis for implementation of text-mining software tools. Algorithms behind these tools allow users to escape from getting too general or garbage results which make it impossible to identify promising technologies at early stages (early detection, weak signals). Besides, these algorithms provide high-quality results in extraction of complex multiword terms which correspond to technological concepts forming a trend. Methodology and software developed as a result of this study are applicable to various industries with minor adjustments and require no deep expert knowledge from a user.
Priority areas:
humanitarian
Language:
English
Kudriavtseva E., / РЦИС. Серия № 0148-756-286. 2026.
The content of the work is the system is a system for identifying four types of written speech structures. A set of 11 calculated parameters, statistical standards, and semantic characteristics allows for the identification of a text's structure as the result of a specific cognitive schema (scene, event, story, evaluation). The method has been verified ...
Added: June 2, 2026
Vorchik A., / SSRN. Серия Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This work is devoted to a theoretical explanation of the Easterlin paradox, according to which long-term economic growth does not make average level of people's happiness increasing. By happiness, we mean the intensity of emotions people experience while comparing their new income with its expected value, or the target income with its original value. In the first case, ...
Added: May 31, 2026
Strizhkova D., / Институт русской литературы (Пушкинский Дом) РАН. Серия B001 "Репозиторий открытых данных по русской литературе и фольклору". 2026.
В базе данных представлена роспись русскоязычных литературных произведений и отрывков, напечатанных в учебниках по словесности, хрестоматиях, книгах для чтения, сборниках стихотворений и рассказов, выходивших во Франции, Германии, Латвии, Эстонии, Болгарии, Сербии в период первой волны русской эмиграции с 1918 по 1939 гг. Датасет представляет интерес для исследователей школьного литературного канона, эмиграции и детского чтения ...
Added: April 22, 2026
Жигунов А. Ю., / Basic Research Programme. Серия HUM "Humanities". 2026. № 1.
The article attempts to describe the features of the educational potential of Russian animation programmes in aspect of the representation of traditional spiritual and moral values. Based on media and semiotic analysis, the method of cultural and historical interpretation, animated Russian projects created from 2000 to the 2025, which were translated on television channels or streaming ...
Added: April 19, 2026
Малахов В. С., Симон М. Е., Летняков Д. Э. et al., / SSRN. Серия Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2020.
The notion of “political accommodation” applied to the theory and practice of managing cultural diversity could enrich the Russian academic dictionary. Liberal democratic states invented specific mechanisms for political accommodation of cultural differences. Thanks to these mechanisms, the part of the population of a democratic state that is not ready to dissolve into the ethnocultural ...
Added: September 26, 2025
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Данный аналитический доклад является одним из результатов исследований в рамках консорциума НИУ ВШЭ и МГИМО. В нем прежде всего раскрыты вопросы концептуализации национальной мощи и сопутствующих категорий и дается обзор прецедентов. Далее рассматриваются вопросы операционализации предлагаемых нами компонентов национальной мощи. В следующих разделах доклада предлагается анализ вопросов методологии, используемой в докладе. На этой основе предложен ...
Added: September 19, 2025
Antipkina I., Ivanov A., Guzhelya D., / Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2024.
This study presents a methodology for developing a new questionnaire format called explicit continuum scenario scales, in the example of a client focus questionnaire. Elements of the Rasch Guttman scenario scale methodology were used in its development. In three consequent studies, different aspects of the scale functioning were investigated. In Study 1, on the sample ...
Added: February 21, 2025
Aitzhanov S., / NRU HSE. Series WP BRP "Linguistics". 2024. No. 116.
This study focuses on examining the role of language as an attribute in the construction of ethnicity within the Korean community in Kazakhstan. The research examines how language functions as an attribute in the categorization and identification processes, and how it interacts with other ethnic attributes such as descent and appearance. Drawing on qualitative methods, ...
Added: December 10, 2024
Veronica M. Sytnik, Proskuryakova L. N., European Journal of Futures Research 2024 Vol. 12 Article 21
This study focuses on the integration of methods from different theories and research
concepts into futures studies in order to better understand the obscure future through
the identification of unpredictable and hard-to-predict rare events and factors.
Particular emphasis in this study is placed on systems theory, cybernetics, synergetics,
theory of chaos, bifurcation theory, catastrophe theory, thermodynamics, and the
theory of ...
Added: November 30, 2024
Микаелян А. Л., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Literary Studies". 2024. No. 28.
The article presents an attempt to examine Goethe's poem "Reineke Fox" in connection with the discussion between Goethe and Schiller about the nature of epic poetry and the principles of its renewal within the poetics of "Weimar Classicism". Goethe introduced into his interpretation of the medieval story of the Fox a number of innovations at various ...
Added: November 19, 2024
Remnev N., Obiedkov S., Rakhilina E. V. et al., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2023.
Grammatical error correction is one of the fundamental tasks in Natural Language Processing. For the Russian language, most of the spellcheckers available correct typos and other simple errors with high accuracy, but often fail when faced with non-native (L2) writing, since the latter contains errors that are not typical for native speakers. In this paper, ...
Added: October 30, 2024
Orekhov B., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2024.
In this paper, I apply linguistic methods of analysis to non-linguistic data, chess plays, metaphorically equating one with the other and seeking analogies. Chess game notations are also a kind of text, and one can consider the records of moves or positions of pieces as words and statements in a certain language. In this article ...
Added: August 8, 2024
Orekhov B., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2024.
Burrows' Delta was introduced in 2002 and has proven to be an effective tool for author attribution. Despite the fact that it was applied to different languages, they mostly belong to the same grammatical type and use the same graphic principle to convey speech in writing: a phonemic alphabet with word separation using spaces. The question ...
Added: August 8, 2024
Orekhov B., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2024.
Added: August 8, 2024
Marina Boykova, Knyazeva H., Salazkin M., Foresight and STI Governance 2023 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 80–91
The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and ...
Added: January 25, 2024
Aleksandr Chulok, , in: Bio#Futures. Foreseeing and Exploring the Bioeconomy.: Cham: Springer, 2021. Ch. 25 P. 563–580.
Blended Foresight approach for global bio trends ...
Added: June 22, 2021
Bredikhin S. V., Futures 2020 Vol. 124 P. 1–12
We set out to establish the place of Weak Signals at the conceptual intersection between the fields of futures and complexity studies as a qualitative counterpart to the so-called Early Warning Signals (of regime shift). After briefly presenting the scope of the Weak Signal concept and associated problems with positioning such a controversial construct against ...
Added: September 8, 2020
Vishnevskiy K., Milshina Y., Saritas O. et al., / NRU HSE. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2018. No. 89/STI/2018.
The wild cards conception as an element of foresight studies has been widely discussed by numerous scholars who have interest and qualification in strategic management field or STI policies from the end of the previous century. Some researchers focus their attention on the general key features of this phenomenon and its overall impact as well ...
Added: October 25, 2018
Kuzminov I., Loginova I., Khabirova E., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. 88.
This paper defines a stress scenario as a global or national business development leading to the scrapping of established trends as a result of one or several technological breakthroughs, which can combine with a number of events and factors unfavorable for the global or national economy. The paper presents an analysis of technological shifts in ...
Added: October 3, 2018
Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D., Khabirova E. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. WP BRP/80/STI/2018.
The article presents the results of the study of radical innovations in the global food industry which were obtained through semantic analysis of heterogeneous unstructured text data sources by applying innovative big data text mining system. The approach used allows performing rapid, yet comprehensive aggregation of the whole polyphony of existing knowledge of the technology ...
Added: March 20, 2018
Saritas O., Gokhberg L., Bakhtin P. D. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 68.
In parallel to the developments in the Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), mobile commerce (m-commerce) has become a large business and technology area with ever-growing market potentials. Comparable to the rest of the world, the m-commerce sector has been developing rapidly in Russia, which provides opportunities for domestic and international enterprises. There are a number ...
Added: October 20, 2016
Wiley J., Stanford: Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences, 2015.
A mountain of information is produced daily in the Social and Behavioral Sciences. How do we make sense of this? How can we extract the threads that run through this research, which will allow us to understand where research on promising topics is going? Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences is designed to ...
Added: January 22, 2016
Bakhtin P. D., Saritas O., , in: Proceedings of the 5th Global TechMining Conference (Atlanta, USA).: [б.и.], 2015.
In the world of rapidly developing Science and Technology (S&T), with increasing volumes of S&T-related data and greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research, technology mining (TM) helps to acquire intelligence about emerging trends and future S&T developments. The task is becoming crucial not only for high-tech startups and large organizations, but also for venture capitalists and ...
Added: October 12, 2015
Ponomareva Y., Sokolova A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2015. No. 46.
This research explores the key stages and methods for the identification of weak signals (WS) and wild cards (WC) in foresight methodology. Theoretical approaches and practical projects in this field were studied, key characteristics and features of these concepts were identified. A review of potential data sources for the monitoring of WS and WC were ...
Added: September 7, 2015