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The Identification Of Weak Signals And Wild Cards In Foresight Methodology: Stages And Methods
NRU Higher School of Economics
,
2015.
No. 46.
Ponomareva Y., Sokolova A.
This research explores the key stages and methods for the identification of weak signals (WS) and wild cards (WC) in foresight methodology. Theoretical approaches and practical projects in this field were studied, key characteristics and features of these concepts were identified. A review of potential data sources for the monitoring of WS and WC were also provided. The key groups of methods were formed including scanning and monitoring; data analysis; modelling, clustering, interpretation; expert procedures. The stages for identification of WS are proposed. A case study devoted to WS for the analysis of technology development of bioprinting is considered.
Publication based on the results of:
Ustyuzhanin V., / Series Econometrics "arxiv". 2026.
This paper proposes Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences (CBWSDID), a design-based extension of weighted stacked DID for settings in which untreated trends may be conditionally rather than unconditionally parallel. The estimator separates within-subexperiment design adjustment from across-subexperiment aggregation: matching or weighting improves treated-control comparability within each stacked subexperiment, while the corrective stacked weights of Wing et ...
Added: April 3, 2026
Vorchik A., / Social Science Research Network. Серия SSRN Working Paper Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
This article is devoted to the phenomenon of intrinsic motivation, to understand which two models are proposed. We study how positive/negative intrinsic motivation to work (experienced utility) affects worker's individual labour supply (model I) and the amount of effort they exert (model II). In model I, we use intrinsic motivation to explain the positive/negative slope ...
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Vorchik A., Мамышев М. А., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2025.
In this paper, we develop a formal mathematical model aimed to explain the Dunning-Kruger effect that beginners systematically overestimate their own competence in various fields of knowledge and activity. We argue that the Dunning-Kruger effect arises from the emotional nature of confidence combined with unknown unknowns that it simply can not take into account due ...
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Musaev A. U., Vorchik A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This paper attempts to model the evolutionary theory of modernization and democratization. The model reflects the key provisions of R. Inglehart and C. Welzel's theory and provides a microfoundation for the adaptation of subjective values to the objective importances of the survival factors and the structure of the labour markets from the perspective of evolutionary ...
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Antsygina A., Teteryatnikova M., Tremewan J. C. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2025.
Many competitive environments allow for a third party to be indirectly involved by supporting one or both sides in the conflict. Such support can come from trade partners, colleagues, or allies, who can in turn benefit from a supported party's success. We use theory and an experiment to investigate how support relationships develop endogenously in ...
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Akhmedova A., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
The study explores a psychological phenomenon of inaction inertia-avoiding action after missing a more favourable opportunity. Unlike action inertia (e.g.,sunk costs effect), inaction inertia has been less studied, particularly in economic contexts. Considering the reference dependent nature of the phenomenon, I build on the work of Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) to examine how past experiences ...
Added: January 23, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Ozhegova A., Зорина К. С., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 6108727". 2026.
Simplified tax regimes with explicit eligibility thresholds are a common tool which reduces tax burden but distorts firms’ behavior, creating local bunching just below the threshold. However, we show that when firms have access to business splitting their responses extend far beyond the local margin. Our model demonstrates that splitting reduces local bunching but amplifies ...
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Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Кумачева С. Ш., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5312100". 2025.
In recent years, an emerging body of empirical research has shown that tax audits, in addition to recovering unpaid taxes (direct effect), increase future tax compliance (indirect or dynamic effect). This literature also suggests that updating expectations induced by audit experience plays an important role in explaining this indirect effect. However, exactly how taxpayers form ...
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Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5277500". 2025.
While the emerging empirical literature shows that collateral tax sanctions (CTSs) - such as driver’s license suspensions or passport denials - appear to be effective instruments to enforce tax debt collection, there are still few theoretical arguments to explain why. In this paper, I model enforcement of tax debt collection and provide a new rationale for why it could ...
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We study the application of factor investing in the market for real estate (REITs). The analysis of traditional factor strategies, such as momentum, value, size and profitability, reveals their unstable and atypical behavior in comparison to the equity market, however, there is a strong momentum effect in the factor strategies. We propose a new dynamic ...
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Besstremyannaya G., Bakshuk M., / ЦЭМИ РАН. Серия 48 заседание "Сборник трудов Шаталинской школы-семинара". 2026.
В данной статье рассматривается реакция российских предприятий обрабатывающей промышленности на ужесточение экономических санкций с акцентом на период после 2022 года. Хотя санкции в целом негативно сказываются на экономическом росте и эффективности деятельности компаний, есть некоторые свидетельства того, что они также могут подталкивать компании к инновациям, а негативный эффект преодолевается при помощи адаптации компании. Исследование заполняет ...
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Besstremyannaya G., Новикова В., / ЦЭМИ РАН. Серия 48 заседание "Сборник трудов Шаталинской школы-семинара". 2026.
Защита прав интеллектуальной собственности является движущей
силой для формирования стимулов инновационной активности
предприятий. Законодательное закрепление правил пользования
результатами интеллектуальной деятельности и обеспечение их соблюдения
позволяет поддерживать баланс интересов создателей и пользователей
интеллектуальной
собственности.
Целью
проанализировать недостаточно изученную для регионов России связь
между экономическим ростом и защитой прав интеллектуальной
собственности с использованием двухшаговой регрессии. Результаты
моделирования оказались неоднозначными, однако, было доказано наличие
значимой связи между защитой прав интеллектуальной ...
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Chulok A., Российский журнал менеджмента 2025 Т. 23 № 2 С. 203–225
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Zinchenko M., Bagrationi K., Gordienko O. A., , in: Proceedings of the 23rd European Conference on e-Learning - ECEL 2024.: Academic Conferences International Limited, 2024. Ch. 55 P. 451–457.
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Эмеретли Х. С., Философия. Журнал Высшей школы экономики 2024 Т. 8 № 1 С. 168 – 187
The article discusses the conceptual framework of the concept of “suicide” and provides its philosophical definition. Continental philosophy has traditionally focused on the axiological and practical-ethical characteristics of suicide. The purpose of the article is to define and comprehend this phenomenon in the course of a polemic with the modern analytical philosophy of suicide. The ...
Added: June 5, 2024
Marina Boykova, Knyazeva H., Salazkin M., Foresight and STI Governance 2023 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 80–91
The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and ...
Added: January 25, 2024
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Extensive research exists on the potential impacts of foresight; however, a comprehensive understanding of the factors that lead to foresight impact, particularly in influencing senior management decisions, is relatively sparse. This study addresses this by reporting on a Delphi and expert panel involving eight senior Canadian government foresight program leaders. These leaders were asked to ...
Added: December 1, 2023
Pace L., Saritas O., Deidun A., Marine Policy 2023 Vol. 148 Article 105433
The blue economy integrates commercial, research and innovation activities across diverse industrial sectors. Achieving a sustainable blue economy requires unlocking the potential of science and innovation to develop innovative ocean sustainability solutions. This study explores the role of foresight in co-creating alternative, preferred futures for a sustainable blue economy looking towards 2030 and in establishing ...
Added: September 8, 2023
Gribkova D. E., Milshina Y., Energies 2022 Vol. 15 No. 3 Article 812
The concept of energy transition has been adopted by national governments, international and regional organizations. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered increasing attention to climate policy, energy transition, and economic resilience. This paper looks at energy transition in selected countries with the use of case studies—China, the European Union, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. ...
Added: October 20, 2022
Gurkov I. B., Morley M., / Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2022. No. 65.
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