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Article

Репродуктивные установки населения России: есть ли повод для оптимизма?

Based on public opinion data carried out in 1995-2019 by Russian Public Opinion Research Center and Levada Analytical Center we study the dynamics of reproductive attitudes in the Russian population. We analyze the mean ideal, desired and expected number of children in women aged 18-44 and men aged 18-54. We consider the differences in desired and expected numbers of children by education and subjective financial well-being. Our analysis confirms the stability of the two-child family ideal among Russian men and women. The mean desired number of children was very close to the mean ideal number of children during 1990s. However, we have found that the mean desired number of children sharply fluctuated during 2000s and 2010-s. The periods of rise of this indicator may be caused by the positive reaction of the population to the measures of financial support for families with children announced shortly before the surveys. Nevertheless, the expected number of children is stable. The new evidence from October 2019 public opinion poll suggest that each ten Russian want to remain childless and we may observe the convergence of one-child and two-child family’s prevalence.