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ХОЛОДИЛЬНИК VS. ТЕЛЕВИЗОР? ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ ГОЛОСОВАНИЕ НА ВЫБОРАХ В ГОСУДАРСТВЕННУЮ ДУМУ РФ 2016 Г.

Щербак А. Н., Смирнова Д. О., Озернова Е. П., Лепешко Е. В., Купка А. П., Калинин А. Н.

This project aims to test the concept of economic voting in the recent Duma election in Russia in 2016. The key idea is to find an explanation how the change in the standard of living in previous five years had affected the support of the “party of power”. According to the standard theory of economic voting, voters do reward government for economic growth and punish for economic crisis. However, the accession of Crimea and the Ukrainian crisis have caused the opposite effect: the rise of patriotism and trust to current political regime and president Vladimir Putin personally. Using the OLS method, we will test the impact of various indicators  on the share of votes gained by the “United Russia” party across regions. We find that social and economic predictors matter, but in theoretically unexpected way: poor regions reward government. We call this effect as “poverty trap”.