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Article

Связь между балансом счета текущих операций и темпами роста для стран большой экономики

Вопросы статистики. 2018. Т. 25. № 5. С. 62-69.

 The author of the article using the example of large economies showed the possibilities of a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the current account balance and the economic growth rates in 1980-2015. The group of the large economies includes those countries whose GDP exceeded 1 percent of the global GDP for at least one year of the period under study. There appear to be 24 countries that meet this criterion. The analysis of the dynamics of the current account balance (CAB) of these countries revealed a significant CAB sign stickiness. That said, out of the 14 countries that make up the so-called permanent group within the large economies, four - Australia, Brazil, India and the USA - have had a CAB deficit during the period under study, and four countries - China, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan - had a CAB surplus.

The article reviews possible correlations between the growth rates and the current account balance (percent of GDP) for the large economies. It is shown that for only a few of those 24 countries there was a stable (with reliability at 80 percent or more) correlation: for some it was positive, for others - negative. Only three out of 24 countries (China, Russia and Turkey) showed a stable correlation with reliability at 0.95: China and Russia - positive correlation; Turkey - negative correlation. The rapid growth of the Indian economy does not have a significant correlation with the CAB value.

The paper analyzes the scatter diagram for CAB values (percent of GDP) and GDP growth rates at constant prices averaged out for the entire observation period for all the 24 countries. Calculations demonstrate that it is possible for large economies to secure relatively high rates of economic growth for many years even with a CAB deficit.