Оценка надежности банка как объекта инвестирования
The approach proposed to classify commercial banks into banks that have a high probability of revoking a license and reliable banks, as well as an information and logical model for identifying a group of banks (or one bank) among reliable banks that are attractive for investment. The probability of license revocation was assessed using a logistic regression model based on database, consisting of 17559 observations for all banks, covering the period from Q1 2012 to Q4 2017. In view of the multicollinearity in data, RIDGE modification was applied with the algorithm for determining the penalty coefficient. In the model, the indicators of volatility of macroeconomic variables, expressed in the standard deviation and variance of the macroeconomic variable within the period under review, were included as regressors. The null hypothesis of statistical zero coefficients at volatility indicators of macroeconomic variables is rejected at various significance levels. The model is built in the R-studio programming environment using the «RIDGE» package. Based on the hierarchical clustering by the Ward method (as a measure of the distance — the square of the Euclidean distance) eleven clusters were obtained. In this paper, a brief description of these clusters is presented on the basis of the absolute mean values of the variables, as well as the relative average values of the bank's financial variables. Using the nonparametric Kruskal—Wallis criterion, which makes it possible to compare the average values for several groups simultaneously, it was found that the financial variables differ significantly at high levels of significance. The results of the cluster analysis can be used to support the investor's decision to select a cluster (or a bank within the cluster) to conduct stress testing of credit risk (as the largest source of losses) in order to invest in banks belonging to the selected cluster that have withstood stress testing. In the future, based on the results of stress testing of credit risk, it is possible to select from the analyzed cluster those banks that are the most resistant to stressful events and can later be viewed by the investor as investment objects.
State Capitalism could be characterized by a triple role of the state: the state performs as a “programmer” to guide economic activity; it acts as a “protector” to safeguard national economic interests; and it also plays the role as a “producer” to create national wealth through its state-owned enterprises (SOEs). However, the influences of State Capitalism in a country are not only limited to the domestic sphere. They often extend internationally, either through the globalization of SOEs, or through Sovereign Fund investments, or by means of other influences. Many recent acquisition projects by SOEs, often in strategic sectors, highlight the importance of understanding this new geopolitical investment which has created special relations between State Capitalism and the free market. They also raise the question of the need for updating national economic security concerns in the context of globalization. As the value of Sovereign Funds reaches several trillion dollars, the controversy surrounding these Funds is evolving. For many, these Funds do not necessarily always look for maximizing business performance, but are sometimes also accompanied by political and strategic ambitions of the respective states from where they originate. The phenomenon of State Capitalism has gained prominence in recent years especially in several emerging markets. It appeared, firstly, because of multiple government interventions in the economy,and secondly, emphasis given to the globalization of their SOEs / economic organizations in international markets (China, Russia, Brazil, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, India, Korea, etc.). In January 2012, The Economist published another special article on State Capitalism and wondered if the new balance of power that is being built-up with the emergence of market oriented SOEs will pose a challenge to the liberal capitalist model. The objectives of this conference are manifold: to examine the characteristics of State Capitalism in the world economy, especially in emerging countries, to assess its real impact on economic development, to identify its scope to other developing countries, and also to explore the major challenges that it poses to the liberal capitalist model in the world of free-markets.
The author analyzes the decision of the President of the country on necessity of removal of state officials from committees of directors of the largest state companies, its pluses and minuses, and appreciates an investment climate in the country which unsatisfactory condition seriously anxious the country leaders.
Procedure for the simulation of the advances in EGE from mathematics is considered. For some tasks the important predictors are obtained. The models of binary logistics regression and ordinal regression for the prediction of probabilities of solution of task are built.
In accordance with the international investment legislation, a state is entitled to implement expropriation and nationalization measures with respect to foreign investments within its territory on condition of guaranteed prompt, efficient and adequate compensation provision in favor of investors. The article notes that there is no clear description of the phenomenon of foreign investors' property alienation in the Russian or world practice. Consideration is given to the types of expropriation: direct, aimed at deprivation of property rights for investments by authorities; indirect, or "creeping" expropriation representing gradual divestiture; and measures that are equivalent to expropriation and inhibit receipts of investment benefits. It is underscored that in the process of investment evaluation it is necessary to take into consideration the degree of intervention in property rights, intentions of the government, and the impossibility to discharge adequate investors' expectations.
In the article we study the reasons and character of economic growth in Russia in the beginning of the XXI-st century. The analysis of the features of economic development is a key to understanding of depth of modern crisis in Russia. This article exhibits institutional preconditions for an overcoming the crisis and acceleration of economic growth.
The authors of this article compare the principles of financial (accounting) statements and its qualitative characteristics, provided by international and local accounting standards, assess their effect on the financial condition of the organization.
This is a textbook in data analysis. Its contents are heavily influenced by the idea that data analysis should help in enhancing and augmenting knowledge of the domain as represented by the concepts and statements of relation between them. According to this view, two main pathways for data analysis are summarization, for developing and augmenting concepts, and correlation, for enhancing and establishing relations. Visualization, in this context, is a way of presenting results in a cognitively comfortable way. The term summarization is understood quite broadly here to embrace not only simple summaries like totals and means, but also more complex summaries such as the principal components of a set of features or cluster structures in a set of entities.
The material presented in this perspective makes a unique mix of subjects from the fields of statistical data analysis, data mining, and computational intelligence, which follow different systems of presentation.
Business Enlish practice tasks and texts for the development and mastering of Business English Vocabulary.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.
The manual is intended for students of Department of computer engineering MIEM HSE. In the textbook based on the courses "Economics of firm" and "the development strategy of the organization." Discusses the key conceptual and methodological issues of the theory and practice of Economics and development planning of the organization. The use of textbooks will enable students: to analyze key performance indicators, and use the tools of strategic analysis with reference to concrete situations in contemporary Russian and international business. Special attention is paid to the methods and systems of information support of the life support functions of business organizations and management methodology of innovation and investment. An Appendix contains source data for analysis of competition in a particular industry.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
Over the last two decades national policy makers drew special attention to the implementation of policy tools which foster international cooperation in the fields of science, technology, and innovation. In this paper, we look at cases of Russian-German collaboration to examine the initiatives of the Russian government aimed at stimulating the innovation activity of domestic corporations and small and medium enterprises. The data derived from the interviews with companies’ leaders show positive effects of bilateral innovative projects on the overall business performance alongside with major barriers hindering international cooperation. To overcome these barriers we provide specific suggestions relevant to the recently developed Russian Innovation Strategy 2020.