Исследования российского рынка труда и экономическая политика
The paper summarizes the studies on the mechanisms of Russian labor market. The subjects under consideration include unemployment and wages formation, relationship between key labor market variables and inflation, and labor market adjustment to negative shocks. We demonstrate that the general feature of Russian labor market isits high flexibility, which showsitself a gradual decline of the NAIRU level, high elasticity of real wages by unemployment rate, rapid return to full employment after negative external shocks. Problems rooted in the labor market are specified (primarily declining labor supply and increasing labor share in GDP), their neglect can become a major impediment for economic growth if forceful measures based on the earlier and future research findings are not taken.
Problems of the Russian economy are under consideration.
Abstract: The paper analyses the role of vocational education in formation of professional trajectories of Russian employed population during the period 2005-2015. Based on longitudinal data we explore the differences between career paths of workers that had the experience of vocational training and workers without such experience. We contribute the debate regarding vocational training and its role in innovation and economic development utilizing methodology of sequence analysis and Markov chains with long memory (mixture transition distribution models (MTD)). MTD models suggest the analysis of categorical data sequences instead of quantitative data that is standard for this kind of research. Such methodological approach allows not only estimating casual effects of participation in vocational education programs on the wage level, but exploring how vocational training influences the whole career path. Our findings suggest that those workers who participate in vocational training have lower probability of different negative events in their careers including job loss. Moreover, mixture transitions distribution models suggest that for such workers the current career status determined by longer history of previous career events than for those employees that had not any experience of participation in vocational education programs. These results give the evidence that vocational education is important factor of success on the labour market, providing greater flexibility of career paths that is crucial in innovation development of the labour market and economy as a whole. Findings of the study also have important policy implications. Importance of vocational training on individual level suggests that investment in vocational education on societal level will bring positive returns. This kind of education provides the flexibility of individuals on the labour market, through vocational training workers obtain new skills and knowledge that allows them utilizing new technologies and innovations. Development of vocational education may be considered as policy-making instrument that can generate positive economic outcomes.
This paper analyzes the role of education in economic growth with special focus on countries with high participation in tertiary education. The practical challenge that this conceptual paper is trying to address is that global economic growth is decreasing in the last decades – especially in developed countries.
This article is dedicated to studying the condition and characteristics of Russian youths’ behavior in the labor market during economic crisis. The analysis is based on data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey — Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE). It is revealed that the negative aftermath of the economic crisis, as well as expectations for the further decline of the economic situation, has undermined youths’ confidence in the labor market. They find themselves in an especially vulnerable position when enterprises shut down or in the case of job cuts. Opportunities for finding a job in the field of secondary employment have narrowed out, and there has been an increase in the amount of young people who are willing to work without signing an employment contract, who are ready to accept unfavorable working conditions. There is an acute sensation of incongruity between the demand for qualified workforce and those specialties which young people receive at higher educational facilities and secondary schools. The crisis has not only exacerbated many of the problems which young people face in the labor market, but it also has stimulated growth in the activity of young Russians when it comes to overcoming emerging troubles, not to mention it increased their interest in utilizing irregular means of material provision.
The paper introduces the methods of assessing the effects of social assistance on work incentives, using representative Rosstat survey data as illustration. It also demonstrates the key steps of testing the hypothesis of the social benefits effect on work incentives, as well as the need for conducting multi-factor analysis coupled with impact evaluation methods. The key finding from descriptive analysis is that an average household that has recipients of social benefits among its members cannot rely on social benefits as a significant source of means of subsistence, therefore social transfers do not produce a sizeable effect on work behavior. Nevertheless, the authors propose a hypothesis that there are certain groups of social transfers beneficiaries whose work behavior may be strongly affected by social transfers. Firstly, this refers to recipients of social transfers, the size of which is comparable to the anticipated wage size. In such cases, social transfers can produce a negative employment effect. Secondly, this could refer to recipients, whose eligibility to social transfers is related to their belonging to a certain professional group. In this case, in all likelihood, social transfers create economic incentives to stay in these professional groups, reducing labor mobility. The testing and analysis of these hypothesis will be presented in forthcoming papers by the authors.
In this article, the authors examine the changes taking place in the social and labor structure of society, against the backdrop of the processes of mass informatization, globalization and the formation of network structures. The aim of the work is to consider a new trend in the labor market - Uberization, which is characterized by the establishment of horizontal links that replace the vertical hierarchy, when the link between the manufacturer and the consumer becomes an automated system. Thus, Uberization is a new stage in the formation of network structures in the labor market, described earlier by D. Pink and R. Florida. In these conditions, self-employment as a form of labor activity becomes especially important. The article reveals the main prerequisites for the emergence of Uberization and its characteristics.
The paper explores the relationship between the import of semi-finished products and means of production and the export of high-tech products in Russian manufacturing companies. The key question of the research is whether the export of high-tech products is connected with the import of complex components and semi-finished products. The study confirms that the export of high-tech products is determined by the import of high-tech semi-finished products for the export-intensive Russian manufacturing companies. The research does not find any relationship between the import of equipment and means of production and the export of high-tech products. This has important implications for Russia’s structural policy aimed at expanding exports of high-tech products. First, introducing protectionist measures in relation to the import of foreign components should take place gradually to allow companies to adapt to the new conditions. Secondly, they should proceed selectively in order to allow access of Russian exporters to critical components and means of production that have no Russian counterparts.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.