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August 12, 2026
‘I Would Like My Research to Help Make the World a Calmer and Better Place
Whatever task Saraa Ali, Junior Research Fellow at the Laboratory of Methods for Big Data Analysis (LAMBDA) of the AI and Digital Science Institute (HSE Faculty of Computer Science), is working on, she thinks about how it can benefit people. She told the Young Scientists of HSE University project about her large family, diagnosing three-phase motors, and her dream of building a children’s home in her native country.
August 11, 2026
‘The Peak of Stupidity and ‘The Valley of Despair: HSE Economists Propose an Explanation for the Dunning–Kruger Effect
The Dunning–Kruger effect, which describes a sharp surge in self-confidence among beginners followed by an equally rapid decline as they gain experience, can be explained by the nature of the learning process and the acquisition of new knowledge. This conclusion was reached by Andrey Vorchik of the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences together with independent researcher Murat Mamyshev. They developed a mathematical model of learning and demonstrated how subjective confidence is formed and changes as knowledge accumulates, as well as how teachers can reduce the ‘valley of despair’ experienced by learners.
July 24, 2026
‘I Like Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
Andrey Vorchik studies happiness, delivers popular science lectures, and believes that science should address social issues as well. In an interview for the Young Scientists of HSE University project, he spoke about how emotions influence decision-making, the Bermuda Triangle formed by the bathroom, refrigerator, and bed, and the ideal formula for education.

 

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Когнитивная и личностная регуляция стратегий решения прогностической задачи (на материале Iowa Gambling Task)

Вестник Московского университета. Серия 14: Психология. 2017. № 3. С. 39–59.
Смирнов С. Д., Chumakova M., Kornilov S. A., Краснов Е., Kornilova T.

The article presents the result of a series of five empirical studies. Across multiple samples with typical development we have established a set of relationships between decision making strategies in Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and such traits as intelligence (general, verbal), executive functions (shifting and inhibition), as well as personality traits of tolerance/intolerance for uncertainty and Big Five personality traits.

The series of empirical studies aimed at verifying a set of hypotheses regarding th e role of intelligence and tolerance/intolerance for uncertainty as predictors of choice strategies in IGT, regarding the contribution of executive functions to the regulation of these strategies, as well as identifying the specifics of prognostic strategies of professionals whose occupation involves high risk – i.e., military leaders.

The main measure was Iowa Gambling Task. This task relies on the prognostic/anticipatory activity of the person playing the game that regulates the sequence of choices that they make from four decks of “cards” that have a probabilistic structure of gains and losses, unknown to the participant at the beginning. According to A. Damasio's somatic marker hypothesis, emotional components play a key role in decision making regulation.

Studies 1 through 3 recruited undergraduate students and general population samples; studies 4 and 5 relied on samples of military leaders.

In addition to the IGT, we also measures a set of cognitive and personality traits, including executive functions (using the Go/No Go paradigm), intelligence (using ROADS and ICAR), tolerance - intolerance for uncertainty (using the NTN questionnaire), Big Five personality traits

(using the TIPI questionnaire), and personal factors of decision making (using the LFR questionnaire).

The studies revealed significant and positive contributions of intelligence and executive functions (i.e., shifting and inhibition) to decisional efficiency and the development of choice strategies, thus implicating cognitive orienting as the key component of decision making in IGT. We also established a set of group differences in both strategies and patterns of the regulation of choices in IGT between military and non - military samples. We also found that it is specifically during early game stages (characterized by maximal uncertainty) that specific personality traits contribute most to decision making – tolerance for uncertainty was such a predictor for our non - military samples, and risk readiness acted as one in military leaders. Conventional Big Five personality traits did not contribute to participants’ performance in the IGT. 

Research target: Psychology
Priority areas: humanitarian
Language: Russian
Full text
DOI
Keywords: intelligenceинтеллектBig Fiveтолерантность к неопределенностибольшая пятеркаexecutive functionsисполнительные функциипрогностическая задачаIowa Gambling Taskстратегии выбораprognostic taskIowa Gambling Task (IGT)strategies of choicetolerance of ambiguity (of uncertainty)
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