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  • Методы согласования квартальных оценок выпуска продуктов и отраслей с годовыми данными о выпуске продукции

Article

Методы согласования квартальных оценок выпуска продуктов и отраслей с годовыми данными о выпуске продукции

Вопросы статистики. 2017. № 10. С. 3-12.
Моторин В.И., Кенчадзе Д. Д.

The aim of this article is to introduce a family of methods for reconciling the preliminary quarterly estimates of product and industry outputs with the corresponding annual outputs at given values of quarterly total outputs. Mathematical framework of the methods leans on generalized least squares principle, which is applied in linear vector space of output seasonal coefficients. The procedure of reconciling the quarterly and annual data on product and industry outputs is formulated as a separable programming problem with a quadratic objective function and linear constraints. The solution of this problem is obtained in analytical form. Separability of the reconciling problem allows introducing its «product» and «industry» reduced modifications. In particular, reduced modifications of the problem can serve as useful tools for balancing the incomplete sets of preliminary quarterly estimates of the product and industry outputs in order to bring them into conformity with the corresponding fragments of the annual output matrix. Simplicity of practical calculations and a very moderate need for computational resources are valid advantages of the proposed methods. In addition, the methods demonstrate a high degree of flexibility and adaptability in solving problems of reconciling the quarterly estimates of product and/or industry outputs with annual output data. High flexibility is provided by the dependence of the separable programming problem and its reduced modifications on the exogenous parameters that are allowed purposeful varying during calculation process.