Метод темпорального дезагрегирования интервального динамического ряда на основе высокочастотных индикаторов и принципа сохранения движения

Вопросы статистики. 2016. № 8. С. 27–37.

Моторин В.И.

The article presents a new method for transforming the low-frequency flow time-series into a consistent time-series with less step period according to high-frequency indicator time-series given. Method is developed on the framework of well-known movement preservation principle and the proportional first difference Denton method. The analytical solution for general problem of flow time-series temporal disaggregation is obtained in the form that demonstrates its linear dependency on an initial value of the instrumental disaggregation parameter. Some ways of incorporating the known Denton and Cholette initial condition to the analytical solution are considered. A notion of initial condition for preserving seasonal cycles in dynamics of multiplicative adjustments is proposed along with the certain way of its incorporation to analytical solution for general problem of flow time-series temporal disaggregation. The frontiers of idempotency and wide opportunities to formulate a recursive base for developed method are investigated. Special attention is paid to a sensitivity of the general problem's analytical solution to small changes in high-frequency and low-frequency data given.

Special techniques of applying the proposed method operationally are considered. The opportunities for two-stage implementation of the method are of great practical interest in the circumstances of the recent low-frequency data revisions and/or the new data arrivals. Computing efficiency of the developed tools for temporal disaggregating is quite high because associated calculations come to inversion of a square matrix of the order that equals a number of observations in low-frequency data set available.

The paper contains a row of illustrative diagrams that represent the results of experimental calculations with the official statistical data on quarterly gross domestic product and monthly output index for main kinds of economic activities in 2011 – 2015.

Keywords: метод множителей Лагранжа, movement preservation principle, proportional Denton method, Lagrange multipliers, flow time-series, temporal disaggregation, optimization problem, интервальный динамический ряд, темпоральное дезагрегирование, принцип сохранения движения, пропорциональный метод Дентона, оптимизационная задача

Publication based on the results of: Factors of long-term Russian economic development in global context (2016)