Aнализ последовательностей в социологии: возможности, ограничения и потенциал применения
The article provides a brief review of social sequence analysis as an algorithmic deterministic approach to the classification of event series. The method is discussed in the context of its reception in social sciences in early 1980s with the help of a pioneering research enthusiast A. Abbott. The specificity of sociological applications of sequence analysis under certain data assumptions inherited from bioinformatics, e.g. universal interchangeability of events, arbitrary censoring, rank time variable, is considered. The article classifies a broad set of methods of time-ordered data analysis to provide a base for epistemological confrontment and pinpoint the advantages and shortcomings of sequence analysis compared to nonparametric statistics and general linear models of ordered events. The bases of classification are the dichotomies of time/order event definition and algorithm/ statistical inference method of result acquiring. The comparison covers different methods’ applications in cases of varied research goals, data types and theoretical assumptions. The article provides a sketch of sequence analysis development over time, considering its aggressive movements towards positioning on the bases of philosophy of history and narrative criticism of general linear models. The roots of its recent orientation towards visualization techniques are discussed as revealed in the scope of early 2000’s controversy over the capability of the use of sequence analysis to solve the theoretical problems stemming from the limitations of general linear models.
Russia has been characterized by an early and universal marriage for a long time. After the Soviet Union collapse, the average ages for marriage have been rising, marital unions have becoming rarer while cohabitations have becoming common because of changes in norms and values that citizens of many other countries witnessed several decades before. Many scholars have observed this trend and tried to explain its reasons through the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition and Globalization theories. Current research is another attempt to understand these changes. The aim of this research was to define the nature of cohabitations in Russia, and find out the factors of entrance to non-marital unions. For these purposes, we used Event History Analysis and Sequence Analysis. The key requirement in using these methods is applying longitudinal or retrospective collections of data that have become the gold standard of current quantitative social science. Accordingly, the three-wave panel data of the Russian part of “Generations and Gender Survey” and the retrospective data of “Person, Family, Society” were chosen for this study. The opposite trends of matrimonial behavior were revealed: the younger Russian people are, the higher their probabilities to start the first cohabitation and the lower their risks to have the first marriage. Cohabitation is not a complete alternative to marriage in our country yet, but the proportion of Russians, for whom cohabitation does not grow into a marriage, rises, and young people start to consider a non-marital union appropriate for childbearing. It is a sign that cohabitation is close to become an independent social institution for young non-religious people who get secondary vocational education in big cities.
Russia has long been characterized by early and universal marriage. After the Soviet Union collapse, the average age of marriage has been rising, and cohabitations have become common. Many scholars explain the causes of this trend through the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition. The aim of this research was to define the nature of cohabitations in Russia, reveal the factors of entrance to non-marital unions in order to discuss how and why non-marital union is implicated in recent dialogues about family policy. In order to achieve the aim, such methods as Event History Analysis and Sequence Analysis were used.
Cohabitation is not a complete alternative to marriage in Russia yet, but the proportion of Russians from various social strata for whom cohabitation does not grow into a marriage is on the rise. Young, non-religious, educated people from big cities have started to consider non-marital union appropriate for childbearing and childrearing. It demonstrates that cohabitation is close to becoming an independent social institution which is a trend of great concern to policymakers due to its implications for children’s well-being.
In the paper, we used only one instrument from the palette of Sequence Analysis methods, the chronogram. But it was enough to show a variety of interesting differences in transition to adulthood among generations and genders. We revealed that new generations have one “new” event – cohabitation. Previous generations had it, but not so commonly as youngsters do now. Previous generations tended to start all the biographies (socioeconomic and demographic) earlier than new ones. Women are more “experienced” than men in the demographic sphere: at the age of 35 they more often have a child but already cease to have a partner or spouse. Men at the age of 35 more often have children and a partner or spouse.
The International Conference on Sequence Analysis and Related Methods (LaCOSA II) was held in Lausanne, June 8-10, 2016, four years after the Lausanne Conference on Sequence Analysis (LaCOSA). The conference brought together scholars using innovative methods for analyzing longitudinal data in social, managerial, political, population, psychological, health, and environmental sciences with developers of methods for longitudinal analysis. Sequence Analysis (SA) has become a popular exploratory tool in social sciences since the pioneering contributions of Andrew Abbott and the recent release of powerful pieces of software. Nevertheless, SA remains essentially exploratory and needs to be complemented with other modeling tools, especially when it comes to testing hypotheses or studying the dynamics that drives the trajectories. In that perspective, this LaCOSA II conference did not limit itself to SA by also covered alternative longitudinal methods, such as survival and event history analysis, Markov-based and other longitudinal stochastic models. The aim was to debate how these different approaches can complement each other. Alongside three keynote talks by Francesco Billari, Jeroen Vermunt and Aart Liefbroer, 57 papers were presented at the conference. The papers were selected among 79 propositions on the basis of reviews made by members of the scientific committee. In addition LaCOSA II featured also a longitudinal data analysis contest. The present proceedings collect the papers presented at the conference. Some authors chose to not include their full paper for copyright reasons. In those cases only a—short or long—abstract is included. We would like to warmly thank here all members of the Scientific Committee for their scientific support and their help in the reviewing process. Many thanks also to the Organizing Committee, as well as to Christelle Burri for her administrative assistance. We also acknowledge the financial support of the University of Geneva and its Geneva School of Social Sciences, the Foundation and the Institute of Social Sciences of i the University of Lausanne, the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research LIVES and the Swiss National Science Foundation. LaCOSA II would not have been possible without all these supports.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.