Russia’s Energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities
Purpose – The purpose of the study is to present and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – ‘Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030’.
Design/methodology/approach - Methods applied in the Foresight study include literature review, statistical, bibliometric and patent analysis, a variety of expert methods, SWOT-analysis, market analysis and policy analysis. In this paper the author performs an ex-post analysis of the study.
Findings - As a result of the study, threats, opportunities, prospective innovative markets for products and services were identified for Russia. Russia's innovative technologies and products were assessed with benchmarking against global leaders. The study’s methodology and outcomes are critically reviewed and recommendations for their refinement are made.
Originality/value - This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbon to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex-post assessment of the study is made with implications for the suture research.
Technology mining (TM) helps to acquire intelligence about the evolution of research and development (R&D), technologies, products, and markets for various STI areas and what is likely to emerge in the future by identifying trends. The present chapter introduces a methodology for the identification of trends through a combination of “thematic clustering” based on the co-occurrence of terms, and “dynamic term clustering” based on the correlation of their dynamics across time. In this way, it is possible to identify and distinguish four patterns in the evolution of terms, which eventually lead to (i) weak signals of future trends, as well as (ii) emerging, (iii) maturing, and (iv) declining trends. Key trends identified are then further analyzed by looking at the semantic connections between terms identified through TM. This helps to understand the context and further features of the trend. The proposed approach is demonstrated in the field photonics as an emerging technology with a number of potential application areas.
The book is dedicated to the 100th anniversary of Russian parliamentarism. The analysis of historical experience and actual problems of development of parliamentarism in Russia, Germany and a number of other European countries is presented. The authors are leading Russian and foreign experts from a number of research centers in Russia and Europe. Materials on the analysis of the development of parliamentarism in Germany and other European countries are based on the results of the European project "Parliamentary representation in Europe: recruiting and the career of legislators in 1848-2005", implemented during the last decade.
The book is addressed to a wide range of readers - scientists, politicians, public servants, teachers and students, everyone who is interested in the history and modern experience of Russian and European parliamentarism.
Foresight has gained much attention as a tool for developing and informing science, technology and innovation policy and company strategies. It is frequently used for detecting not only potential development paths of technologies but also possible economic and societal changes; and for identifying challenges that nations, societies and companies might face in the future. Raising awareness within the respective communities of trends and challenges is critically important—and the biggest challenge is how we can develop measures to meet these anticipated challenges. Paradoxically, perhaps, it may be more helpful for creating and implementing successful measures if these are elaborated by thinking about grasping opportunities, rather than framing them in terms of threats that have to be responded to. Accordingly there is a need to change the mindsets in science, technology and innovation policy making—and to engender solution and opportunity orientation among scientists and engineers.
Russia’s policy towards Northeast Asia cannot be understood independently of its general Asian strategy, primarily its pivot to Asia, which has practically become an official policy after 2014. We are witnessing two contradictory tendencies in Washington and Seoul. The Trump administration seeks to assume a tougher stance on North Korea. At the same time, South Korea’s new government is likely to be more moderate towards Pyongyang. At the same time Russian experts expressed considerable hope.
Technology foresight has been increasingly undertaken by developing countries to identify technologies whose adoption might serve as a platform for future economic growth. However, foresight activities have not, by and large, resulted in well-developed policy initiatives. Three factors are relevant for improvement. First, foresight activities would benefit from being more informed by the convergence literature and global convergence experience over the past several decades, and should therefore incorporate organically the concepts of absorptive capacity and technology gap into foresight exercises. Second, certain preconditions – in particular the existence of a functional national innovation system – enhance the likelihood that foresight exercises will be successful. Third, in order to achieve wide buy-in and promote the sustainability of initiatives generated by the foresight activity, developing countries are advised to consult widely in the foresight process. Policies emanating from foresight activities should additionally address two core challenges: a) a clear definition of those technologies that should be developed internally vs. those that should be sourced from abroad and b) identification of the internal capabilities to be developed in conjunction with those technologies targeted for acquisition from abroad.
Science, technology and innovation (STI) involves numerous policy fields which are championed by different government ministries or agencies. A consistent and coherent anticipatory policy mix is understood to be one that ensures a timely development and implementation of various forward-looking policy instruments. Such timely implementation is crucial for the eventual impact of the policy measures. This also requires that foresight for STI policies looks beyond the potential development paths and challenges but includes the time dimension and the outline of necessary policy responses including a relevant implementation framework. In addition the institutions which are part of the National Innovation Systems (NIS) should to be considered thoroughly for a well-balanced and comprehensive policy mix. Not only national but also regional and local actors need to be involved—and they need to be involved not only in the implementation of policy but at much earlier stages in the foresight and subsequent design procedures of the policy mix. One practical approach for convincing and engaging NIS actors at different levels is to stress opportunities which offer advantages to each of them, instead of just focusing on challenges and problems.
The book presents multidisciplinary analysis of the various manifestations of post-urban processes in modern society, the scientific understanding of a wide range of issues: the socio-economic and cultural effects and consequences of urbanization are highlighted, features and prospects of ruralization, return migration, the search for new non-urban way of lifestyles in urbanized countries, downshifting and upshifting, the role of modern technology in these processes are described. Special attention is paid to research value grounds, which are largely stem and supported by the space of the modern city.
The book is of interest to a wide range of scientists in humanities disciplines, in particular, sociologists, economists, psychologists, philosophers, cultural studies, political scientists, geographers. The book focuses scientific attention on the new cluster of studies.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.