Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration, and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. This new fast-changing landscape requires approaches and tools, which may help to practice adaptive Foresight for a dynamically changing context.Design/methodology/approach
The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop and multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on Science and Technology (S&T) development in Russia.
The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility. Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate.
The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate.
A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of Science and Technology policy with an illustrative case study.
Purpose: Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration, and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. This new fast-changing landscape requires approaches and tools, which may help to practice adaptive Foresight for a dynamically changing context.
Design/methodology/approach: The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop and multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on Science and Technology (S&T) development in Russia.
Findings: The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility.
Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate.
Practical implications: The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for foresight exercises at all levels of governance including national and international, regional, and corporate. Originality/value: A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of Science and Technology policy with an illustrative case study.
Purpose – Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) were designed to determine the exact location of objects on land, water and air for military purposes. With the opening of the satellite signal for civilian use, the technology created business opportunities for various applications. Today, satellite positioning technology is used by transporters, carriers, motorists, surveyors, builders, foresters, etc. through a wide array of devices like mobile phones or multimedia devices with built-in receiver modules. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides the results of a recently held foresight exercise on the future development of Russia’s GLONASS system. Findings – The foresight exercise suggested a number niche markets where the GLONASS technology could be of great use, like monitoring of buildings and construction sides or the monitoring of shipments. In addition, in the case of Russia, large-scale government-driven investment programs will be key drivers for GLONASS’ growth perspectives. Originality/value – The paper provides a comprehensive picture of the development of GNSS for civilian use until 2020.
Technologies are constantly developed to address new demands and provide further opportunities. Owing to a number of potential application areas of nanotechnologies within this sector, the purpose of this study is to take defense as a case and propose a strategic roadmap for the use of nanotechnologies in the Turkish Defense Industry.
The study presented in this paper uses a bibliometric analysis of the most cited publications in the past decade with the aim of identifying the trends in the development of nanotechnology. Interviews were carried out with experts based on the featured words of bibliometric analysis (nanoparticles, nanostructure, self-assembly, drug delivery, graphene, etc.) to reveal the commercialization time of nanotechnology products and applications. After that, a survey was carried out with engineers for determining the possible emergence time of nanotechnology applications and/or products used in military up to year 2035. Finally, a roadmap was created based on the obtained data from bibliometric analysis, interviews and survey results.
Nanotechnology roadmap was prepared, one which would contribute to the preparation of the defense industry for the future and help in keeping up with technological developments.
Because of the chosen research approach, the research results may lack generalizability. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to test the proposed propositions further. Interviews and surveys have limitation with the bounded rationality of corresponders.
The paper proposed a nanotechnology roadmap for the defense sector with a data-led foresight practice.
Performing such a study is considered to be crucial for the armies of developed and developing countries, so that the military sector also avails benefits from this revolutionary technology. Quantitative and qualitative methods were mixed for developing the roadmap.
The paper undertakes an analysis of the attempts of GCC and BRIC countries to catch up in their national development to build an innovation-driven economy on which to base future growth and wealth. We conducted an analysis of GCC and BRIC countries to show the different strategies leaders have taken to try and achieve this aspiration. This paper analyses the various aspects of national innovation systems of BRIC and GCC countries, highlights similar and different approaches – and attempts to quantify their success. For example, GCC countries spend extensively on research and development, but have so far achieved less than meaningful results. Brazil, China and India are catching up to the acknowledged world leaders in innovation, but Russia is lagging.
Counter-intuitively, we will argue that the push towards an innovation-based economy is actually not dependent on total expenditure on R&D, but rather relies on the efficient allocation of investments and the rigorous implementation of innovation strategy. And we will demonstrate this by showing our ideas in relation to both BRIC and GCC countries.
This analysis raises fascinating points of discussion for those looking to build an innovation economy in other countries, and has practical implications for policy maker and policy implementers in all countries.
With intelligence (a field related to foresight) practice growing, the purpose of this study was to examine the practices of Canadian competitive intelligence (CI) practitioners.
Survey of Canadian CI practitioners who are SCIP members (Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professional), using a revision to a previously used instrument designed to examine competitive intelligence practices.
Canadian SCIP member competitive intelligence practices seem to be more formalized than those found in the global SCIP study in 2006 with 84.8 per cent having a manager with CI responsibilities, 61 per cent with a formal centralized CI unit and only 9 per cent responding that CI was done informally. Intelligence units were generally smaller with 38 per cent having one full-time CI resource and 41 per cent having between 2 and 4 full-time resources. Additional findings on information sources used, analytical techniques used, evaluation methods and communication methods are reported.
Despite getting responses from close to 50 per cent of SCIP members, the small sample size (79) makes it difficult to generalize the results beyond the Canadian SCIP environment and limits the testing that can be done.
The last study on Canadian competitive intelligence practices was in 2008, thus part of the originality of the study was getting more recent information on corporate intelligence practice. In addition, this is the first Canadian study to focus specifically on known intelligence practitioners (SCIP members). Past studies focused on companies in general regardless of whether respondents knew what competitive intelligence was or practiced CI.
Purpose – Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light of technology and innovation policy, many individual Foresight studies are undertaken which are separate and little linked with the broader policy scope and ambition. This paper aims to look at an approach towards a consistent Foresight system which is linked closely to science, technology and innovation policy.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper provides an in-depth case study of the Russian Foresight system. The case study is based on desk research and extensive experience of the authors with the system.
Findings – Russia has developed a systematic approach towards organising Foresight which involves and serves multiple stakeholders, including government, ministries, federal and regional agencies, higher education institutions, public research institutes, state-owned companies and private businesses and a large range of associations. Under the auspicious of a dedicated commission, targeted Foresight is undertaken with clearly defined scope for each. The paper finds that the Russian system is unique in its organisational structure and in the integration of Foresight with science, technology and innovation policy measures.
Originality/value – The paper describes all facets of the Russian Foresight system which has not been done before. It also outlines the practical steps to further develop and leverage the system.
Purpose – This paper aims to depict foresight programmes as extended service encounters between foresight practitioners, sponsors, and other stakeholders. The implications of this perspective for evaluating the outcomes of such programmes are to be explored.
Design/methodology/approach – The range of activities comprising foresight is reviewed, along with the various objectives that may underpin these activities. The more substantial foresight programmes are seen in terms of a series of steps, in each of which various partners can be involved in generating service outcomes and later steps of the process. The arguments are illustrated with insights drawn from various cases.
Findings – A foresight programme is likely to feed into more than one policy process, so that the foresight activities can be linked to various stages of the policy cycles, as well as engaging participants with different degrees of inﬂuence on the policies in question. The outcomes of the foresight activity are also heavily shaped by the degree of involvement of various stakeholders, not least the sponsoring agency and any other groups it seeks to mobilise. Seeing foresight as a service activity brings to the fore the notion of co-production, and the importance of the design of the service encounters involved.
Research limitations/implications – The task of evaluating foresight is a challenging one, and comparison of foresight activities needs to bear in mind the different scale, scope, and ambitions of different programmes. Simple static comparison of formal inputs and outputs will miss much of the value and value-added of the activity.Practical implications – A dynamic approach to evaluation stresses the learning of lessons about the roles of multiple stakeholders – and the responsibilities of sponsors as well as practitioners. Originality/value – Foresight programmes are frequently commissioned, and often have signiﬁcant inﬂuence on decision-making. Attempts to systematically evaluate these efforts have begun, and this essay stresses the need to be aware of the complex interactive nature of foresight, highlighted by viewing it in service terms.
This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the implications for ways forward.
The methodology is based on the principles of co-evolutionary complex systems, a newly developed toolkit of “synergistic mapping and design”, and its application in a “synergy foresight” method.
The UK Foresight Future of Cities is work in progress, but some early lessons are emerging – the need for transparency in foresight method – and the wider context of strategic policy intelligence.
The paper has practical recommendations, and a set of propositions, (under active discussion in 2015), which are based on the analysis.
The paper aims to demonstrate an application of “synergy foresight” with wide benefits for cities and the communities within them.
Purpose – This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of the Russian agroindustry and possible future strategies for adaptation in the context of the rapidly changing global environment.
Design/methodology/approach – The design of this study is based on the application of the core methods of Foresight. First, a trend analysis is undertaken using reviews and expert methods. Trends identified are mapped using a social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value (STEEPV) framework to ensure that a broad range of trends are covered, which may be stemming from various factors affecting the agriculture sector. The analysis of the big picture of global trends and challenges, interacting with country-specific structural factors, translates are translated into the opportunities and threats, which will in turn help to develop possible strategies for adaptation.
Findings – This study develops two adaptive strategies for the development of the Russian agroindustry that are feasible in different short- and long–term time horizons. The first strategy is considered to be the most likely choice for the period before 2020. It includes radical imports’ substitution (of commodities as well as machinery and high-tech components) for ensuring national food security with inevitable temporary setbacks in efficiency and labour productivity. The second strategy, which becomes feasible after 2020, considers re-integrating Russia into global supply chains and expanding commodities exports (volumes and nomenclature) based on full-scale technological modernization with the use of international capital.
Research limitations/implications – The study design is based on the assumption that Russia’s position as a country, which is highly self-sufficient on basic agricultural products and large exporter of crop commodities and fertilizers, will remain unchanged in the horizon of at least 20 years. However, long-term forecasts should also scrutinize the possibility of radical structural changes. Therefore, future research should concentrate on wild cards that can completely disrupt and transform the Russian agriculture industry and as well as the whole economy.
Practical implications – This paper suggests a number of recommendations on national science and technology policy for the three main industries of the Russian agricultural sector: crop husbandry, animal breeding and food processing (the fisheries sector is excluded from the scope of this paper). In addition, this paper proposes a number of measures towards alleviating the institutional barriers to raise the investment attractiveness of the sector.
Originality/value – The novelty of this paper lies in the originality of the research topic and methodology. The Russian agricultural sector has rarely been studied in the context of global agricultural challenges and threats taken on the highest level of aggregation beyond commodity market analysis or agro-climatic and logistics factors. There are few or no studies that lay out a map of possible long-term strategies of Russian agroindustry adaptive development. The Foresight methodology applied in this study is customized to better fit the practical purposes of the study.
Having reviewed existing global energy forecasts made by reputable multilateral and national government agencies, major energy corporations and specialized consulting firms, the authors noticed that most of them are by and large based on extrapolation of conventional long-term trends depicting gradual growth of fossil fuels demand and catching-up supply. Unlike this approach the paper focuses on the possible cases when conventional trends are broken, supply-demand imbalances become huge and the situation in the global energy markets is rapidly and dramatically changing with severe consequences for Russian economy, seriously dependent on fossil fuels exports. Revealing these stress scenarios and major drivers leading to their realization are in the focus of the research. Basing on STEEPV approach the authors start from analyzing various combinations of factors capable to launch stress scenarios for Russian economy. Formulating concrete stress scenarios and assessing their negative impact on Russian economy constitute the next step of the analysis. In conclusion the paper underlines the urgency to integrate stress analysis related to global energy trends into the Russian national systems of technology foresight and strategic planning, which are now in the early stages of development.
The papers in this special issue of Foresight represent the most detailed accounts to appear in the English language, to date, of the Foresight and related futures analyses that have been undertaken in contemporary Russia. The Russian Federation has set out to undertake a remarkable range of such activities in the past decade, and both the approaches adopted and the results obtained are of interest for many reasons.
Developing methodically sound approaches to defining and analysing measurements of sectoral science and technology priorities is a key pre-requisite of a successful and effective state science, technology and innovation management system. This article presents the results of research into the evolution of Russia’s science and technology priorities in information and communication technologies (ICT) based on a system founded on detailed profiles for sectoral critical technologies supplemented by quantitative statistics on the development of the information society in Russia.Design/methodology/approach
This analysis of Russia’s ICT science and technology priorities was broken down into three periods which tie in with milestones when large-scale changes in ICT were observed: 2002–2006; 2007–2010; 2011–2015.Findings
This article presents the results of research into the evolution of Russia’s science and technology priorities in information and communication technologies (ICT) based on a system founded on detailed and carefully studied profiles for sectoral critical technologies supplemented by quantitative statistics on the development of the information society in Russia. An important aspect in support of this approach is regular large-scale processes to update the profiles of sectoral critical technologies (on average once every 5 years) and to conduct statistical observations in ICT (once every year). The involvement in this process of updating critical technologies of large (500 or more) numbers of sectoral experts representing industry leaders, research and educational institutions, core ministries and regulatory bodies guarantees a comprehensive cross-section in researching and profiling critical technologies in different important areas: science, production, and government administration.
The substantial growth in literature on knowledge-intensive business services (KIBSs) has thrown light on their contributions to innovation and innovation systems. This paper is the first of a set that examines major debates and conclusions to have emerged from this growing body of evidence.
This is a review essay, which also presents relevant statistics. It addresses definitional issues and controversies, and sets out basic trends and characteristics of the KIBS industries. The focus is mainly on KIBS firms, though the production of similar services in other types of organisation is also considered.
Many of the conclusions of an earlier (2005) review in this journal remain valid, though difficulties in capturing these activities in official statistics mean that there are many issues that demand closer inspection. Understanding the role and future prospects of KIBS will also require looking beyond the literature that focuses just on KIBS industries.
This study involves literature review and statistical analysis. Future work would benefit from involvement of practitioners and users of KIBS.
More explicit consideration of KIBS in statistical frameworks is still required, and novel approaches to data conceptualisation and production should be explored.
The growing literature on KIBS, and its implications for understanding the roles and future development of the firms and their relationships to innovation systems, requires systematic analysis. Available statistics have been brought together, and this paper also reflects critically on the trajectories of research on these topics.
Purpose – The literature on knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) shows them to be major innovators; this is confirmed with recent data, which the authors use to examine the various types of innovation that KIBS undertake. The implications for employment and work in highly innovative industries are important topics for analysis, not least because we are in a period where dramatic claims are being made as to the implications of new technologies for professional occupations. Thus, this paper aims to address major debates and conclusions concerning innovation patterns in KIBS and the evolving structures of professional and other work in these industries.
Design/methodology/approach – This essay combines literature review with presentation and discussion of statistics that throw light on the patterns of innovation that characterise KIBS. The authors also consider data that concern trends in the organisation of work in these industries; while the focus is mainly on KIBS firms, they also pay some attention to KIBS-like work in other sectors. Even though KIBS are distinctive industries in modern economies, these analyses can be related to more general studies of, and forecasts about, changes in work organisation.
Findings – The authors show that innovation patterns and employment structures vary substantially across different types of KIBS, with the distinction between technological, professional and creative KIBS proving to be useful for capturing these differences. The authors are also able to demonstrate important long- and medium-term trends in the structure and activities of the KIBS industries. In particular, data clearly demonstrate the increasing share of professional as against associate and clerical workers in most KIBS. Evidence also suggests that polarisation trends across the economy are mirrored, and in some cases amplified, in KIBS. The future prospects for employment in KIBS, and for professional work in particular, are seen to involve multiple factors, which together may bring about substantial change.
Research limitations/implications – The study involves literature review and industry-level statistical analysis. Future work would benefit from firm-level analysis and validation and explication of results via consultation with practitioners and users of KIBS. Some puzzling variations across countries and sectors will need to be explored with national and sectoral experts.
Practical implications – Research into KIBS activities, and their future, should make more use of the extensive statistics on employment and other structural features of the industries that have become available in recent years. KIBS firms and practitioners will need to take account of the forces for change that are liable to restructure their activities.
Originality/value – The literature on KIBS has been concentrated on a rather narrow range of issues, while analysis of the current contributions and future development of the industries requires attention to a wider range of topics. This paper suggests how these topics may be investigated and their implications explored and presents results of enquiries along these lines
Purpose. The paper aims to present the results of the first Russian pilot study on technological level of organisations upon the answers of 2,500 respondents out of nine sectors of economy to a broad specialised questionnaire. The purpose of the study is to assess the technological level of organisations on the basis of qualitative information that comprehensively reflects its most important characteristics, as well as identify factors that affect the technological level of production.
Design/methodology/approach. It offers a look at which methodological approaches were developed and what the survey shows on characteristics of the application of technology (the scope and extent of the application, level of technology, the problems solved by applying specific types of technology) and the application of intellectual property rights.
Findings. The paper also highlights some interesting findings that suggest that the majority of national organisations tend to pursue technological self-sufficiency strategies and quite a large part of them are not active in either domestic or foreign Science & Tecnology markets.
Originality/value. An originality lies in the proposed methodological approaches of the study, in the selected indicators of progressivity and the scale of application of technology related to the level of production capacities of the surveyed medium and large enterprises and organisations. This identifies significant incentives for organisations to increase their technology level as well as competitive advantages for the respondents themselves and for their competitors.
Purpose. The purpose of this research is to look at effects of research and development expenditures (R&D) on value and risks of publicly traded companies by studying returns on stock exchanges of R&D-intensive economies (Republic of Korea, Finland, and Israel). Design/Methodology/Approach. Empirical tests of multifactor asset pricing models were applied in order to demonstrate that R&D intensity could be considered a pricing factor and affect investors’ risk premiums on those markets. In order to discover the reasons behind the asset pricing R&D anomaly, we investigated the nature of R&D risk further by looking into the interactions of R&D and currency risks. Findings. We discover that investors in stock markets of R&D-intensive countries should require a positive equity risk premium. However, the reduction of R&D intensity may increase firm’s risks and firms with higher R&D-intensity are less exposed to currency risks in R&Dintensive economies. Originality/value. Many researchers have investigated the relationship between a firm’s R&D and stock returns. But nearly all of them focus on the U.S. stock market and attempt to determine the reasons for R&D’s impact on firms’ risks and market value. Meanwhile, the role of R&D and related risks for investors could be even more prominent for stock markets in R&D intensive countries. In order to bridge this gap, we study stock returns on exchanges of three developed countries where the ratio of Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD) to GDP is among the highest worldwide. We adopted the methodology of asset pricing empirical studies and developed it further to analyze the causes of R&D risks. The new methodology was applied to discover relationship between R&D intensity and currency risk exposure. Our interesting findings could be used for development of firm’s corporate strategies in those countries and for elaboration of policy decisions.
Purpose: This paper aims to present a categorization scheme and use it to classify Canadian Government (federal and provincial) competitive intelligence (CI) programs and to also look at the impact of these programs on sectoral and regional economic development.
Design/methodology/approach: Based on the author’s 25 years of experience designing, running, and studying Canadian Government CI programs, a classification scheme to classify these programs has been developed and used. Also, by using program review information, this paper looks at evidence for program impact on regional and sectoral economic development.
Findings: This paper identifies a broad range of federal and provincially sponsored CI programs aimed at helping both government officers and those outside the department make better decisions. The review identified several roles that the government can play in using CI: creator of CI (both for their own purposes and also for helping Canadian companies), CI environment skills builder (helping Canadian companies develop skills in developing their own CI) and CI partner (working jointly with Canadian companies in developing CI). While there have not been many formal program reviews of the CI programs sponsored by Canadian Government departments and agencies, anecdotal evidence (from training program participant evaluations) and a comprehensive review of a small community CI-based economic development program support positive sectoral and regional economic development results arising from these programs.
Practical implications: CI programs can be used as part of a government’s regional and sectoral economic development approach. CI can be used to assist with decision-making both within and outside the government. This paper identifies several different kinds of programs that can be used to further a government’s economic development agenda.
Originality/value: There are very few articles that examine how governments have helped companies to develop CI and how they have used CI, and none has looked at the impact of these on regional and sectoral economic development. This paper, based on the author’s experiences, provides a view of the Canadian programs and their impact on regional/sectoral economic development.
This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D investment to support the manufacturing industry’s growth in the country and the region.
Using horizon scanning, scenario analysis and expert opinion, nine capabilities are identified as core areas to be developed to support the country’s future growth of product-service systems.
The results of a Delphi survey involving 30 industry and academic thought leaders recommend priorities of these capabilities. This paper concludes with a discussion of the study implications for theory, research and practice in the domain of servitisation and product-service systems.
The foresight study presented here on the future of servitisation in Singapore demonstrates one of the first fully fledged applications of foresight in constructing a coherent vision of future product-service system markets. In this study, the authors applied systemic foresight methodology (SFM) comprising the first six phases: initiation (scoping), intelligence (scanning), imagination (scenarios), integration (priorities), interpretation (strategies) and implementation (action).For future research, an ideal step would be to proceed with the final phase of the SFM, impact, to develop indicators for servitisation and to monitor and evaluate the transition process.
Manufacturing and services are no longer distinct concepts with a clear divide. Manufacturing firms not only become more service dependent but also produce and provide services for their consumers. This transformation towards servitisation implies fundamental re-organisation of the production and management practices. Furthermore, through new business models, new and loyal customers will be gained, which will in turn bring additional income, while making the companies less prone to economic and business fluctuations.
The results of this study have practical implications for policymakers of public and private sectors that are interested in playing a key role in future product-service system innovation. These have implications for developing the human and intellectual capital that are required for supporting the future innovation. Institutes of higher learning and vocational institutes should also consider incorporating new curricula and modules to build the capabilities for knowledge creation and transfer.
The findings of the present study on strategic growth areas and relevant critical capabilities provide new directions for research in the field of servitisation. Among the nine capabilities identified, the top three were advanced customer intelligence capability, socio-physical service quality, traceability and maintainability and integrated strategic decision-making. From the results, it is apparent that advanced customer intelligence capability is both an area of importance to Singapore and the world.
This paper aims to analyse the necessity and sufficiency of researchers’ and engineers’ competencies in the area of science and technology, given oncoming technological changes. Five key questions are addressed concerning the skills and abilities of PhD holders: What competencies do researchers have at present? What competencies are currently used? How valuable are they at the present time? Will they be in demand in 10-15 years? And how relevant are these competencies for working on projects in priority areas of science and technology development? Design/methodology/approach: The analysis was based on data collected by two empirical studies conducted in 2010-2013. A survey of researchers and engineers described the issues with competencies related to the areas of science, technology and innovation. Study among 1,884 PhD holders employed in research institutes, universities and enterprises was carried out. In addition, 30 in-depth interviews were also conducted with experts representing the most promising areas of science and technology development in Russia – nanotechnology, biotechnology and the power engineering sectors. Findings: The results from quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate that general competencies such as fundamental theoretical knowledge, ability to work on projects, teamwork and creativity will be in demand in 10-15 years, rather than highly specialized skills. Employers tend to develop needed skills of researchers involved in innovations directly on the workplace, during the realization of a project. Originality/value: This is the first paper to use solid broad statistical evidence to outline a clear idea of the technological and scientific research competencies that would be required in the future.
The goal of this paper is to apply foresight methodology to the area of nanotechnologies and new materials within the framework of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 aimed at revelation major trends, most promising products and technologies.
To achieve this goal best international practice was analyzed that provided a solid basis for Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (section ‘Nanotechnology and new materials’). The study used a wide range of advanced Foresight methods adapted to Russian circumstances. During the foresight study we integrated “market pull” and research “technology push” approaches including both traditional methods (priority-setting, roadmaps, global challenges analysis), and relatively new approaches (horizon scanning, weak signals, wild cards, etc.).
Using the methods of the Foresight we identified trends with the greatest impact on the sphere of nanotechnology and new materials, promising markets, product groups, and potential areas of demand for Russian innovation technologies and developments in this field. We assessed the state-of-the-art of the domestic research in the area of nanotechnologies and new materials to identify “blank spots”, as well as parity zone and leadership, which can be the basis for integration into international alliances and positioning of Russia as a center of global technological development in this field.
The results of applying foresight methodology towards revelation of the most prospective S&T areas in the field of nanotechnologies and new materials can be used by a variety of stakeholders including federal and regional authorities, technology platforms and innovation and industrial clusters, leading universities and scientific organizations in formulation their research and strategic agenda. Russian business including both large companies and SMEs can use results of the study in creating their strategic R&D programs and finding appropriate partners.